Fulham 2–3 Chelsea

2026-08-24 20:00, Craven Cottage. Half time 1–2. Josh King 22', Gonzalo García 53'; João Pedro 0', Morgan Rogers 40', Cole Palmer 48'

2026-08-24 20:00
Fulham
2–3
Chelsea
2.1
expected goals
+0.2 to Fulham
1.9

Chelsea won a match that was close on chances, 1.9 to 2.1 expected goals.

14Shots18
2.06Expected goals from open play1.46
0.04From set pieces0.42
2.11Excluding penalties1.88
1.13As the rating counts them1.72
1.6Points the chances deserved1.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Fulham creates 1.10 and allows 1.22; Chelsea creates 1.46 and allows 1.18.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Fulham win 44 per cent, draw 24, Chelsea win 32. Fulham deserved 1.6 points and took 0; Chelsea deserved 1.2 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Fulham attack this way →← Chelsea attack this wayJoão Pedro 0': 0.16 expected goals, GOALMorgan Rogers 3': 0.05 expected goalsReece James 3': 0.05 expected goalsLevi Colwill 5': 0.02 expected goalsCole Palmer 7': 0.07 expected goalsCole Palmer 18': 0.12 expected goalsJosh King 19': 0.03 expected goalsCésar Palacios 20': 0.04 expected goalsSander Berge 21': 0.04 expected goalsJosh King 22': 0.16 expected goals, GOALCésar Palacios 26': 0.16 expected goalsGonzalo García 26': 0.27 expected goalsJoão Pedro 29': 0.09 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 32': 0.11 expected goalsReece James 32': 0.07 expected goalsJorrel Hato 35': 0.02 expected goalsRoméo Lavia 35': 0.33 expected goalsCalvin Bassey 38': 0.03 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 40': 0.23 expected goals, GOALCole Palmer 43': 0.17 expected goalsJoão Pedro 46': 0.08 expected goalsCole Palmer 47': 0.11 expected goalsCole Palmer 48': 0.08 expected goals, GOALTimothy Castagne 53': 0.22 expected goalsGonzalo García 53': 0.89 expected goals, GOALJoão Pedro 62': 0.04 expected goalsJosh King 71': 0.05 expected goalsAntonee Robinson 77': 0.06 expected goalsRyan Sessegnon 83': 0.10 expected goalsGonzalo García 92': 0.05 expected goalsPedro Neto 93': 0.08 expected goalsRodrigo Muniz 94': 0.02 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001122334455667788MinuteFulham: 0Fulham, 19': Josh King, 0.03 expected goalsFulham, 20': César Palacios, 0.04 expected goalsFulham, 21': Sander Berge, 0.04 expected goalsFulham, 22': Josh King, 0.16 expected goals, GOALFulham, 26': César Palacios, 0.16 expected goalsFulham, 26': Gonzalo García, 0.27 expected goalsFulham, 38': Calvin Bassey, 0.03 expected goalsFulham, 53': Timothy Castagne, 0.22 expected goalsFulham, 53': Gonzalo García, 0.89 expected goals, GOALFulham, 71': Josh King, 0.05 expected goalsFulham, 77': Antonee Robinson, 0.06 expected goalsFulham, 83': Ryan Sessegnon, 0.10 expected goalsFulham, 92': Gonzalo García, 0.05 expected goalsFulham, 94': Rodrigo Muniz, 0.02 expected goalsFulham: 2.11Chelsea: 0Chelsea, 0': João Pedro, 0.16 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 3': Morgan Rogers, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 3': Reece James, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 5': Levi Colwill, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 7': Cole Palmer, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea, 18': Cole Palmer, 0.12 expected goalsChelsea, 29': João Pedro, 0.09 expected goalsChelsea, 32': Morgan Rogers, 0.11 expected goalsChelsea, 32': Reece James, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea, 35': Jorrel Hato, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 35': Roméo Lavia, 0.33 expected goalsChelsea, 40': Morgan Rogers, 0.23 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 43': Cole Palmer, 0.17 expected goalsChelsea, 46': João Pedro, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 47': Cole Palmer, 0.11 expected goalsChelsea, 48': Cole Palmer, 0.08 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 62': João Pedro, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 93': Pedro Neto, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea: 1.88FulhamChelseaGOAL João Pedro 0'GOAL Josh King 22'GOAL Morgan Rogers 40'GOAL Cole Palmer 48'GOAL Gonzalo García 53'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsFulhamChelsea
In full2.111.88
Excluding penalties2.111.88
As the rating counts them1.131.72

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromFulhamChelsea
Open play2.061.46
of which counter-attacks0.000.42
Set pieces0.040.42
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.890.02
Inside the box1.831.46
Shots1418
Expected goals a shot0.150.10

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
0:31ChelseaJoão Pedro Goal0.16FastBreakfoot15
3:03ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot21
3:38ChelseaReece James Blocked0.05FromCornerfoot19
5:38ChelseaLevi Colwill Blocked0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot22
7:46ChelseaCole Palmer Saved0.07FastBreakfoot18
18:51ChelseaCole Palmer Blocked0.12RegularPlayfoot14
19:32FulhamJosh King Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
20:13FulhamCésar Palacios Missed0.04FromCornerfoot18
21:29FulhamSander Berge Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot20
22:39FulhamJosh King Goal0.16RegularPlayfoot19
26:28FulhamCésar Palacios Blocked0.16RegularPlayfoot8
26:49FulhamGonzalo García Blocked0.27RegularPlayfoot8
29:59ChelseaJoão Pedro Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot13
32:54ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.11FastBreakfoot18
32:56ChelseaReece James Saved0.07FastBreakfoot19
35:00ChelseaJorrel Hato Blocked0.02FromCornerhead12
35:04ChelseaRoméo Lavia Saved0.33FromCornerfoot5
38:30FulhamCalvin Bassey Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot25
40:05ChelseaMorgan Rogers Goal0.23RegularPlayfoot9
43:42ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.17RegularPlayfoot21
46:25ChelseaJoão Pedro Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot14
47:51ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.11RegularPlayfoot16
48:45ChelseaCole Palmer Goal0.08RegularPlayfoot12
53:45FulhamTimothy Castagne Saved0.22RegularPlayfoot15
53:48FulhamGonzalo García Goal0.89RegularPlayhead4
62:09ChelseaJoão Pedro Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot23
71:57FulhamJosh King Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot20
77:04FulhamAntonee Robinson Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot19
83:45FulhamRyan Sessegnon Saved0.10RegularPlayfoot15
92:13FulhamGonzalo García Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot19
93:34ChelseaPedro Neto Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot15
94:10FulhamRodrigo Muniz Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot26

Match statistics

FulhamChelsea
Corners64
Shots1418
Shots on target66
Shots off target35
Total passes639394
Pass accuracy %86.581.7
Fouls committed127
Total yellow cards23

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.