Man City 2–1 Bournemouth

2026-08-23 14:00, Etihad Stadium. Half time 0–1. Marc Guéhi 83', Josko Gvardiol 90'; Marcus Tavernier 25'

2026-08-23 14:00
Man City
2–1
Bournemouth
1.6
expected goals
+1.2 to Man City
0.5

Man City created more, 1.6 to 0.5 expected goals, and won.

13Shots5
1.05Expected goals from open play0.40
0.57From set pieces0.06
1.62Excluding penalties0.46
1.51As the rating counts them0.46
2.3Points the chances deserved0.5

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man City creates 1.81 and allows 1.01; Bournemouth creates 1.28 and allows 1.25.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Man City win 69 per cent, draw 23, Bournemouth win 9. Man City deserved 2.3 points and took 3; Bournemouth deserved 0.5 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Man City attack this way →← Bournemouth attack this wayRico Lewis 3': 0.12 expected goalsNico O'Reilly 4': 0.03 expected goalsPhil Foden 7': 0.06 expected goalsRayan 13': 0.05 expected goalsMarcus Tavernier 25': 0.23 expected goals, GOALErling Haaland 32': 0.06 expected goalsErling Haaland 38': 0.05 expected goalsMarcus Tavernier 39': 0.06 expected goalsJustin Kluivert 40': 0.07 expected goalsErling Haaland 43': 0.14 expected goalsMarc Guéhi 50': 0.29 expected goalsAntoine Semenyo 66': 0.05 expected goalsPhil Foden 67': 0.05 expected goalsErling Haaland 71': 0.12 expected goalsErling Haaland 74': 0.23 expected goalsDaniel Jebbison 78': 0.06 expected goalsMarc Guéhi 83': 0.10 expected goals, GOALJosko Gvardiol 90': 0.31 expected goals, GOAL

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteMan City: 0Man City, 3': Rico Lewis, 0.12 expected goalsMan City, 4': Nico O'Reilly, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 7': Phil Foden, 0.06 expected goalsMan City, 32': Erling Haaland, 0.06 expected goalsMan City, 38': Erling Haaland, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 43': Erling Haaland, 0.14 expected goalsMan City, 50': Marc Guéhi, 0.29 expected goalsMan City, 66': Antoine Semenyo, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 67': Phil Foden, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 71': Erling Haaland, 0.12 expected goalsMan City, 74': Erling Haaland, 0.23 expected goalsMan City, 83': Marc Guéhi, 0.10 expected goals, GOALMan City, 90': Josko Gvardiol, 0.31 expected goals, GOALMan City: 1.62Bournemouth: 0Bournemouth, 13': Rayan, 0.05 expected goalsBournemouth, 25': Marcus Tavernier, 0.23 expected goals, GOALBournemouth, 39': Marcus Tavernier, 0.06 expected goalsBournemouth, 40': Justin Kluivert, 0.07 expected goalsBournemouth, 78': Daniel Jebbison, 0.06 expected goalsBournemouth: 0.46Man CityBournemouthGOAL Marcus Tavernier 25'GOAL Marc Guéhi 83'GOAL Josko Gvardiol 90'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsMan CityBournemouth
In full1.620.46
Excluding penalties1.620.46
As the rating counts them1.510.46

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromMan CityBournemouth
Open play1.050.40
of which counter-attacks0.000.06
Set pieces0.570.06
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.470.06
Inside the box1.510.40
Shots135
Expected goals a shot0.120.09

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
3:20Man CityRico Lewis Saved0.12RegularPlayfoot9
4:11Man CityNico O'Reilly Missed0.03FromCornerhead9
7:21Man CityPhil Foden Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot13
13:56BournemouthRayan Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot15
25:19BournemouthMarcus Tavernier Goal0.23RegularPlayfoot9
32:42Man CityErling Haaland Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot17
38:36Man CityErling Haaland Saved0.05RegularPlayhead11
39:18BournemouthMarcus Tavernier Missed0.06FastBreakfoot25
40:20BournemouthJustin Kluivert Saved0.07RegularPlayfoot17
43:44Man CityErling Haaland Missed0.14FromCornerfoot8
50:56Man CityMarc Guéhi Missed0.29FromCornerhead4
66:40Man CityAntoine Semenyo Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot15
67:49Man CityPhil Foden Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot20
71:28Man CityErling Haaland Missed0.12RegularPlayfoot13
74:09Man CityErling Haaland Saved0.23RegularPlayfoot8
78:13BournemouthDaniel Jebbison Saved0.06SetPiecehead10
83:56Man CityMarc Guéhi Goal0.10FromCornerhead7
90:30Man CityJosko Gvardiol Goal0.31RegularPlayfoot11

Match statistics

Man CityBournemouth
Corners83
Shots135
Shots on target64
Shots off target41
Total passes658344
Pass accuracy %88.878.5
Fouls committed1111
Total yellow cards12

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.