Crystal Palace 1–4 Man City

2026-08-28 20:00, Selhurst Park. Half time 0–1. Gianluigi Donnarumma 55' (own goal); Erling Haaland 16', Rayan Cherki 53', Rayan Cherki 58', Erling Haaland 83'

2026-08-28 20:00
Crystal Palace
1–4
Man City
0.5
expected goals
-2.0 to Crystal Palace
2.5

Man City created more, 2.5 to 0.5 expected goals, and won.

9Shots18
0.30Expected goals from open play1.94
0.17From set pieces0.57
0.46Excluding penalties2.51
0.46As the rating counts them1.99
0.2Points the chances deserved2.7

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Crystal Palace creates 1.17 and allows 1.24; Man City creates 1.81 and allows 1.01.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Crystal Palace win 4 per cent, draw 11, Man City win 85. Crystal Palace deserved 0.2 points and took 0; Man City deserved 2.7 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Crystal Palace attack this way →← Man City attack this wayEddie Nketiah 1': 0.07 expected goalsDaichi Kamada 2': 0.05 expected goalsTyrick Mitchell 4': 0.02 expected goalsElliot Anderson 6': 0.03 expected goalsRúben Dias 6': 0.11 expected goalsErling Haaland 6': 0.36 expected goalsErling Haaland 7': 0.38 expected goalsErling Haaland 16': 0.09 expected goals, GOALPhil Foden 20': 0.13 expected goalsNico O'Reilly 21': 0.02 expected goalsPhil Foden 27': 0.42 expected goalsJørgen Strand Larsen 32': 0.03 expected goalsTyrick Mitchell 33': 0.05 expected goalsAntoine Semenyo 37': 0.05 expected goalsChris Richards 38': 0.02 expected goalsErling Haaland 43': 0.14 expected goalsAnan Khalaili 44': 0.01 expected goalsRayan Cherki 46': 0.09 expected goalsAntoine Semenyo 46': 0.05 expected goalsPhil Foden 47': 0.03 expected goalsEddie Nketiah 49': 0.17 expected goalsElliot Anderson 52': 0.04 expected goalsRayan Cherki 53': 0.35 expected goals, GOALYéremy Pino 55': 0.05 expected goalsRayan Cherki 58': 0.03 expected goals, GOALRyan McAidoo 82': 0.09 expected goalsErling Haaland 83': 0.10 expected goals, GOAL

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.001.002.0001122334455667788MinuteCrystal Palace: 0Crystal Palace, 1': Eddie Nketiah, 0.07 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 2': Daichi Kamada, 0.05 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 4': Tyrick Mitchell, 0.02 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 32': Jørgen Strand Larsen, 0.03 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 33': Tyrick Mitchell, 0.05 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 38': Chris Richards, 0.02 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 44': Anan Khalaili, 0.01 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 49': Eddie Nketiah, 0.17 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 55': Yéremy Pino, 0.05 expected goalsCrystal Palace: 0.46Man City: 0Man City, 6': Elliot Anderson, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 6': Rúben Dias, 0.11 expected goalsMan City, 6': Erling Haaland, 0.36 expected goalsMan City, 7': Erling Haaland, 0.38 expected goalsMan City, 16': Erling Haaland, 0.09 expected goals, GOALMan City, 20': Phil Foden, 0.13 expected goalsMan City, 21': Nico O'Reilly, 0.02 expected goalsMan City, 27': Phil Foden, 0.42 expected goalsMan City, 37': Antoine Semenyo, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 43': Erling Haaland, 0.14 expected goalsMan City, 46': Rayan Cherki, 0.09 expected goalsMan City, 46': Antoine Semenyo, 0.05 expected goalsMan City, 47': Phil Foden, 0.03 expected goalsMan City, 52': Elliot Anderson, 0.04 expected goalsMan City, 53': Rayan Cherki, 0.35 expected goals, GOALMan City, 58': Rayan Cherki, 0.03 expected goals, GOALMan City, 82': Ryan McAidoo, 0.09 expected goalsMan City, 83': Erling Haaland, 0.10 expected goals, GOALMan City: 2.51Crystal PalaceMan CityGOAL Erling Haaland 16'GOAL Rayan Cherki 53'GOAL Rayan Cherki 58'GOAL Erling Haaland 83'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsCrystal PalaceMan City
In full0.462.51
Excluding penalties0.462.51
As the rating counts them0.461.99

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromCrystal PalaceMan City
Open play0.301.94
of which counter-attacks0.000.09
Set pieces0.170.57
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.100.23
Inside the box0.382.30
Shots918
Expected goals a shot0.050.14

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
1:25Crystal PalaceEddie Nketiah Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot14
2:17Crystal PalaceDaichi Kamada Blocked0.05FromCornerfoot20
4:52Crystal PalaceTyrick Mitchell Missed0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot24
6:41Man CityElliot Anderson Saved0.03FromCornerfoot24
6:45Man CityRúben Dias Saved0.11FromCornerfoot8
6:46Man CityErling Haaland Saved0.36FromCornerfoot6
7:58Man CityErling Haaland Missed0.38RegularPlayfoot6
16:04Man CityErling Haaland Goal0.09RegularPlayhead9
20:57Man CityPhil Foden Missed0.13RegularPlayfoot13
21:59Man CityNico O'Reilly Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot28
27:11Man CityPhil Foden Missed0.42RegularPlayother5
32:46Crystal PalaceJørgen Strand Larsen Missed0.03SetPiecehead13
33:56Crystal PalaceTyrick Mitchell Missed0.05RegularPlayhead11
37:23Man CityAntoine Semenyo Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot18
38:32Crystal PalaceChris Richards Saved0.02SetPiecehead14
43:11Man CityErling Haaland Missed0.14RegularPlayhead8
44:48Crystal PalaceAnan Khalaili Missed0.01RegularPlayfoot29
46:02Man CityRayan Cherki Saved0.09RegularPlayfoot16
46:45Man CityAntoine Semenyo Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot17
47:34Man CityPhil Foden Blocked0.03FromCornerfoot23
49:04Crystal PalaceEddie Nketiah Missed0.17RegularPlayfoot9
52:19Man CityElliot Anderson Missed0.04FromCornerfoot16
53:06Man CityRayan Cherki Goal0.35RegularPlayfoot8
55:21Crystal PalaceYéremy Pino Post0.05DirectFreekickfoot26
58:40Man CityRayan Cherki Goal0.03RegularPlayfoot24
82:24Man CityRyan McAidoo Missed0.09FastBreakfoot21
83:58Man CityErling Haaland Goal0.10RegularPlayfoot13

Match statistics

Crystal PalaceMan City
Corners26
Shots918
Shots on target19
Shots off target77
Total passes291788
Pass accuracy %81.192.8
Fouls committed811
Total yellow cards12

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.