Brighton 1–1 Leeds

2026-09-05 15:00, American Express Stadium. Half time 0–1. Luka Vuskovic 70'; Jayden Bogle 14'

2026-09-05 15:00
Brighton
1–1
Leeds
1.9
expected goals
+0.2 to Brighton
1.7

An even match on chances, 1.9 to 1.7 expected goals, and a draw.

20Shots10
1.45Expected goals from open play0.41
0.50From set pieces1.32
1.95Excluding penalties1.74
1.64As the rating counts them1.14
1.5Points the chances deserved1.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Brighton creates 1.30 and allows 1.20; Leeds creates 1.10 and allows 1.23.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Brighton win 42 per cent, draw 26, Leeds win 32. Brighton deserved 1.5 points and took 1; Leeds deserved 1.2 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Brighton attack this way →← Leeds attack this wayDominic Calvert-Lewin 14': 0.11 expected goalsAo Tanaka 14': 0.16 expected goalsJayden Bogle 14': 0.85 expected goals, GOALJames Justin 21': 0.04 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 22': 0.14 expected goalsAo Tanaka 23': 0.04 expected goalsPascal Groß 26': 0.01 expected goalsDiego Gómez 28': 0.06 expected goalsFerdi Kadioglu 45': 0.02 expected goalsAnton Stach 47': 0.13 expected goalsCharalampos Kostoulas 53': 0.02 expected goalsPascal Groß 54': 0.07 expected goalsCharalampos Kostoulas 56': 0.10 expected goalsJames Justin 62': 0.09 expected goalsDiego Gómez 62': 0.02 expected goalsPascal Groß 64': 0.03 expected goalsFerdi Kadioglu 64': 0.07 expected goalsCharalampos Kostoulas 67': 0.12 expected goalsMalick Yalcouyé 68': 0.06 expected goalsDiego Gómez 69': 0.03 expected goalsLuka Vuskovic 70': 0.13 expected goals, GOALLukas Nmecha 75': 0.11 expected goalsYasin Ayari 81': 0.09 expected goalsDiego Gómez 82': 0.04 expected goalsYasin Ayari 82': 0.05 expected goalsPromise David 84': 0.24 expected goalsLuka Vuskovic 86': 0.05 expected goalsPascal Groß 88': 0.17 expected goalsPascal Groß 88': 0.56 expected goalsLukas Nmecha 89': 0.08 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteBrighton: 0Brighton, 26': Pascal Groß, 0.01 expected goalsBrighton, 28': Diego Gómez, 0.06 expected goalsBrighton, 45': Ferdi Kadioglu, 0.02 expected goalsBrighton, 53': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.02 expected goalsBrighton, 54': Pascal Groß, 0.07 expected goalsBrighton, 56': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.10 expected goalsBrighton, 62': Diego Gómez, 0.02 expected goalsBrighton, 64': Pascal Groß, 0.03 expected goalsBrighton, 64': Ferdi Kadioglu, 0.07 expected goalsBrighton, 67': Charalampos Kostoulas, 0.12 expected goalsBrighton, 68': Malick Yalcouyé, 0.06 expected goalsBrighton, 69': Diego Gómez, 0.03 expected goalsBrighton, 70': Luka Vuskovic, 0.13 expected goals, GOALBrighton, 81': Yasin Ayari, 0.09 expected goalsBrighton, 82': Diego Gómez, 0.04 expected goalsBrighton, 82': Yasin Ayari, 0.05 expected goalsBrighton, 84': Promise David, 0.24 expected goalsBrighton, 86': Luka Vuskovic, 0.05 expected goalsBrighton, 88': Pascal Groß, 0.17 expected goalsBrighton, 88': Pascal Groß, 0.56 expected goalsBrighton: 1.95Leeds: 0Leeds, 14': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.11 expected goalsLeeds, 14': Ao Tanaka, 0.16 expected goalsLeeds, 14': Jayden Bogle, 0.85 expected goals, GOALLeeds, 21': James Justin, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds, 22': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.14 expected goalsLeeds, 23': Ao Tanaka, 0.04 expected goalsLeeds, 47': Anton Stach, 0.13 expected goalsLeeds, 62': James Justin, 0.09 expected goalsLeeds, 75': Lukas Nmecha, 0.11 expected goalsLeeds, 89': Lukas Nmecha, 0.08 expected goalsLeeds: 1.74BrightonLeedsGOAL Jayden Bogle 14'GOAL Luka Vuskovic 70'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsBrightonLeeds
In full1.951.74
Excluding penalties1.951.74
As the rating counts them1.641.14

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromBrightonLeeds
Open play1.450.41
of which counter-attacks0.000.00
Set pieces0.501.32
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.290.14
Inside the box1.651.74
Shots2010
Expected goals a shot0.100.17

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
14:33LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Saved0.11FromCornerhead8
14:35LeedsAo Tanaka Missed0.16FromCornerfoot6
14:38LeedsJayden Bogle Goal0.85FromCornerfoot3
21:57LeedsJames Justin Missed0.04FromCornerhead10
22:49LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Saved0.14RegularPlayfoot12
23:27LeedsAo Tanaka Post0.04FromCornerfoot14
26:33BrightonPascal Groß Missed0.01SetPiecefoot29
28:49BrightonDiego Gómez Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot16
45:47BrightonFerdi Kadioglu Blocked0.02SetPiecefoot26
47:54LeedsAnton Stach Saved0.13ThrowinSetPiecefoot9
53:03BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot26
54:06BrightonPascal Groß Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot18
56:13BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Blocked0.10RegularPlayfoot14
62:14LeedsJames Justin Saved0.09RegularPlayfoot15
62:35BrightonDiego Gómez Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot27
64:05BrightonPascal Groß Missed0.03SetPiecefoot20
64:07BrightonFerdi Kadioglu Saved0.07SetPiecefoot15
67:25BrightonCharalampos Kostoulas Saved0.12RegularPlayfoot14
68:34BrightonMalick Yalcouyé Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot21
69:59BrightonDiego Gómez Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot24
70:54BrightonLuka Vuskovic Goal0.13FromCornerhead6
75:13LeedsLukas Nmecha Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot13
81:39BrightonYasin Ayari Saved0.09RegularPlayfoot14
82:42BrightonDiego Gómez Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot22
82:44BrightonYasin Ayari Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot21
84:57BrightonPromise David Missed0.24SetPiecefoot6
86:02BrightonLuka Vuskovic Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot18
88:19BrightonPascal Groß Blocked0.17RegularPlayhead7
88:20BrightonPascal Groß Missed0.56RegularPlayfoot5
89:00LeedsLukas Nmecha Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot14

Match statistics

BrightonLeeds
Corners76
Shots2010
Shots on target55
Shots off target84
Total passes522252
Pass accuracy %83.767.9
Fouls committed1316
Total yellow cards33

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.