Newcastle 2–1 Hull

2026-09-19 15:00, St. James' Park. Half time 2–0. Joe Willock 2', Lewis Hall 6'; Mohamed-Ali Cho 66'

2026-09-19 15:00
Newcastle
2–1
Hull
1.4
expected goals
-1.0 to Newcastle
2.4

Newcastle won with 1.4 expected goals to 2.4: the result went against the performance.

12Shots22
0.48Expected goals from open play1.83
0.10From set pieces0.61
0.82From penalties0.00
0.58Excluding penalties2.44
0.99As the rating counts them1.75
0.7Points the chances deserved2.1

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Newcastle creates 1.30 and allows 1.29; Hull creates 0.78 and allows 1.64.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Newcastle win 16 per cent, draw 22, Hull win 62. Newcastle deserved 0.7 points and took 3; Hull deserved 2.1 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Newcastle attack this way →← Hull attack this wayJoe Willock 2': 0.06 expected goalsJoe Willock 2': 0.10 expected goals, GOALJacob Murphy 5': 0.02 expected goalsLewis Hall 6': 0.09 expected goals, GOALMohamed Belloumi 15': 0.25 expected goalsSorba Thomas 22': 0.24 expected goalsJacob Murphy 29': 0.01 expected goalsLewis Hall 32': 0.09 expected goalsJohn Egan 45': 0.00 expected goalsYoane Wissa 46': 0.82 expected goalsSorba Thomas 47': 0.03 expected goalsSven Botman 51': 0.06 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 52': 0.09 expected goalsMatias Fernandez-Pardo 54': 0.05 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 58': 0.05 expected goalsOliver McBurnie 62': 0.17 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 63': 0.03 expected goalsMohamed-Ali Cho 66': 0.52 expected goals, GOALOliver McBurnie 67': 0.05 expected goalsRegan Slater 71': 0.11 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 72': 0.03 expected goalsLucas Herrington 78': 0.03 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 79': 0.05 expected goalsSemi Ajayi 80': 0.01 expected goalsOliver McBurnie 80': 0.32 expected goalsTim Iroegbunam 81': 0.15 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 83': 0.04 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 83': 0.07 expected goalsOliver McBurnie 84': 0.13 expected goalsYoane Wissa 88': 0.04 expected goalsLucas Gourna-Douath 89': 0.02 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 90': 0.03 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 90': 0.04 expected goalsTim Iroegbunam 93': 0.03 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001122334455667788MinuteNewcastle: 0Newcastle, 2': Joe Willock, 0.06 expected goalsNewcastle, 2': Joe Willock, 0.10 expected goals, GOALNewcastle, 5': Jacob Murphy, 0.02 expected goalsNewcastle, 6': Lewis Hall, 0.09 expected goals, GOALNewcastle, 29': Jacob Murphy, 0.01 expected goalsNewcastle, 32': Lewis Hall, 0.09 expected goalsNewcastle, 46': Yoane Wissa, 0.82 expected goalsNewcastle, 51': Sven Botman, 0.06 expected goalsNewcastle, 54': Matias Fernandez-Pardo, 0.05 expected goalsNewcastle, 63': Harvey Barnes, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle, 83': Harvey Barnes, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle, 88': Yoane Wissa, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle: 1.40Hull: 0Hull, 15': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.25 expected goalsHull, 22': Sorba Thomas, 0.24 expected goalsHull, 45': John Egan, 0.00 expected goalsHull, 47': Sorba Thomas, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 52': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.09 expected goalsHull, 58': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.05 expected goalsHull, 62': Oliver McBurnie, 0.17 expected goalsHull, 66': Mohamed-Ali Cho, 0.52 expected goals, GOALHull, 67': Oliver McBurnie, 0.05 expected goalsHull, 71': Regan Slater, 0.11 expected goalsHull, 72': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 78': Lucas Herrington, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 79': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.05 expected goalsHull, 80': Semi Ajayi, 0.01 expected goalsHull, 80': Oliver McBurnie, 0.32 expected goalsHull, 81': Tim Iroegbunam, 0.15 expected goalsHull, 83': Joe Gelhardt, 0.07 expected goalsHull, 84': Oliver McBurnie, 0.13 expected goalsHull, 89': Lucas Gourna-Douath, 0.02 expected goalsHull, 90': Joe Gelhardt, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 90': Joe Gelhardt, 0.04 expected goalsHull, 93': Tim Iroegbunam, 0.03 expected goalsHull: 2.44NewcastleHullGOAL Joe Willock 2'GOAL Lewis Hall 6'GOAL Mohamed-Ali Cho 66'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsNewcastleHull
In full1.402.44
Excluding penalties0.582.44
As the rating counts them0.991.75

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromNewcastleHull
Open play0.481.83
of which counter-attacks0.090.14
Set pieces0.100.61
Penalties0.820.00
Headers0.060.18
Inside the box0.512.10
Shots1222
Expected goals a shot0.120.11

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
2:17NewcastleJoe Willock Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot18
2:25NewcastleJoe Willock Goal0.10RegularPlayfoot12
5:15NewcastleJacob Murphy Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot28
6:34NewcastleLewis Hall Goal0.09FastBreakfoot18
15:14HullMohamed Belloumi Saved0.25RegularPlayfoot12
22:59HullSorba Thomas Blocked0.24RegularPlayfoot8
29:41NewcastleJacob Murphy Missed0.01RegularPlayfoot32
32:33NewcastleLewis Hall Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot9
45:00HullJohn Egan Saved0.00RegularPlayfoot48
46:30NewcastleYoane Wissa Saved0.82Penaltyfoot11
47:59HullSorba Thomas Missed0.03ThrowinSetPiecefoot19
51:18NewcastleSven Botman Saved0.06SetPiecehead10
52:06HullMohamed Belloumi Missed0.09FastBreakfoot18
54:04NewcastleMatias Fernandez-Pardo Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot18
58:51HullMohamed Belloumi Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot21
62:01HullOliver McBurnie Blocked0.17RegularPlayfoot19
63:43NewcastleHarvey Barnes Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot24
66:21HullMohamed-Ali Cho Goal0.52RegularPlayfoot15
67:20HullOliver McBurnie Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot21
71:59HullRegan Slater Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot15
72:18HullMohamed Belloumi Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24
78:52HullLucas Herrington Blocked0.03SetPiecehead12
79:28HullMohamed Belloumi Blocked0.05FastBreakfoot24
80:17HullSemi Ajayi Missed0.01FromCornerhead13
80:19HullOliver McBurnie Blocked0.32FromCornerfoot6
81:00HullTim Iroegbunam Missed0.15ThrowinSetPiecefoot10
83:29NewcastleHarvey Barnes Saved0.04SetPiecefoot17
83:53HullJoe Gelhardt Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot19
84:30HullOliver McBurnie Blocked0.13RegularPlayhead8
88:56NewcastleYoane Wissa Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot23
89:39HullLucas Gourna-Douath Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot24
90:13HullJoe Gelhardt Blocked0.03FromCornerfoot23
90:21HullJoe Gelhardt Missed0.04FromCornerfoot20
93:50HullTim Iroegbunam Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot24

Match statistics

NewcastleHull
Corners47
Shots1222
Shots on target54
Shots off target57
Total passes523382
Pass accuracy %88.079.1
Fouls committed410
Total yellow cards15

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.