Arsenal 2–1 Leeds

2026-10-10 12:30, Emirates Stadium. Half time 0–0. Riccardo Calafiori 61', Bruno Guimarães 69'; James Justin 54'

2026-10-10 12:30
Arsenal
2–1
Leeds
2.0
expected goals
+1.3 to Arsenal
0.6

Arsenal created more, 2.0 to 0.6 expected goals, and won.

13Shots11
1.89Expected goals from open play0.52
0.06From set pieces0.13
1.95Excluding penalties0.64
1.42As the rating counts them0.55
2.4Points the chances deserved0.4

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Arsenal creates 1.66 and allows 0.89; Leeds creates 1.11 and allows 1.21.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Arsenal win 73 per cent, draw 19, Leeds win 9. Arsenal deserved 2.4 points and took 3; Leeds deserved 0.4 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Arsenal attack this way →← Leeds attack this wayJames Justin 7': 0.03 expected goalsNoah Okafor 7': 0.06 expected goalsKai Havertz 20': 0.08 expected goalsMyles Lewis-Skelly 22': 0.04 expected goalsAnton Stach 24': 0.06 expected goalsJayden Bogle 26': 0.17 expected goalsNoni Madueke 28': 0.07 expected goalsEthan Ampadu 34': 0.00 expected goalsKai Havertz 41': 0.08 expected goalsGabriel Gudmundsson 43': 0.05 expected goalsAnton Stach 43': 0.01 expected goalsMartin Ødegaard 50': 0.10 expected goalsJames Justin 51': 0.03 expected goalsAo Tanaka 52': 0.18 expected goalsJames Justin 54': 0.03 expected goals, GOALNoni Madueke 61': 0.02 expected goalsRiccardo Calafiori 61': 0.46 expected goals, GOALGabriel Gudmundsson 63': 0.01 expected goalsRiccardo Calafiori 66': 0.06 expected goalsBruno Guimarães 69': 0.08 expected goals, GOALBukayo Saka 74': 0.10 expected goalsMartin Ødegaard 82': 0.58 expected goalsNoni Madueke 91': 0.08 expected goalsBukayo Saka 95': 0.21 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteArsenal: 0Arsenal, 20': Kai Havertz, 0.08 expected goalsArsenal, 22': Myles Lewis-Skelly, 0.04 expected goalsArsenal, 28': Noni Madueke, 0.07 expected goalsArsenal, 41': Kai Havertz, 0.08 expected goalsArsenal, 50': Martin Ødegaard, 0.10 expected goalsArsenal, 61': Noni Madueke, 0.02 expected goalsArsenal, 61': Riccardo Calafiori, 0.46 expected goals, GOALArsenal, 66': Riccardo Calafiori, 0.06 expected goalsArsenal, 69': Bruno Guimarães, 0.08 expected goals, GOALArsenal, 74': Bukayo Saka, 0.10 expected goalsArsenal, 82': Martin Ødegaard, 0.58 expected goalsArsenal, 91': Noni Madueke, 0.08 expected goalsArsenal, 95': Bukayo Saka, 0.21 expected goalsArsenal: 1.95Leeds: 0Leeds, 7': James Justin, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 7': Noah Okafor, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds, 24': Anton Stach, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds, 26': Jayden Bogle, 0.17 expected goalsLeeds, 34': Ethan Ampadu, 0.00 expected goalsLeeds, 43': Gabriel Gudmundsson, 0.05 expected goalsLeeds, 43': Anton Stach, 0.01 expected goalsLeeds, 51': James Justin, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 52': Ao Tanaka, 0.18 expected goalsLeeds, 54': James Justin, 0.03 expected goals, GOALLeeds, 63': Gabriel Gudmundsson, 0.01 expected goalsLeeds: 0.64ArsenalLeedsGOAL James Justin 54'GOAL Riccardo Calafiori 61'GOAL Bruno Guimarães 69'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsArsenalLeeds
In full1.950.64
Excluding penalties1.950.64
As the rating counts them1.420.55

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromArsenalLeeds
Open play1.890.52
of which counter-attacks0.100.00
Set pieces0.060.13
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.160.05
Inside the box1.450.41
Shots1311
Expected goals a shot0.150.06

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
7:44LeedsJames Justin Blocked0.03SetPiecehead13
7:46LeedsNoah Okafor Blocked0.06SetPiecefoot16
20:24ArsenalKai Havertz Saved0.08RegularPlayhead9
22:15ArsenalMyles Lewis-Skelly Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot22
24:21LeedsAnton Stach Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot12
26:16LeedsJayden Bogle Saved0.17RegularPlayfoot8
28:24ArsenalNoni Madueke Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot13
34:06LeedsEthan Ampadu Saved0.00SetPiecehead20
41:45ArsenalKai Havertz Missed0.08RegularPlayhead9
43:22LeedsGabriel Gudmundsson Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot12
43:59LeedsAnton Stach Missed0.01ThrowinSetPiecehead13
50:34ArsenalMartin Ødegaard Saved0.10RegularPlayfoot15
51:14LeedsJames Justin Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot23
52:15LeedsAo Tanaka Saved0.18RegularPlayfoot21
54:42LeedsJames Justin Goal0.03RegularPlayfoot16
61:25ArsenalNoni Madueke Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot23
61:44ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori Goal0.46RegularPlayfoot6
63:48LeedsGabriel Gudmundsson Missed0.01ThrowinSetPiecefoot27
66:41ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori Missed0.06FromCornerfoot16
69:28ArsenalBruno Guimarães Goal0.08RegularPlayfoot17
74:42ArsenalBukayo Saka Missed0.10FastBreakfoot19
82:08ArsenalMartin Ødegaard Saved0.58RegularPlayfoot4
91:17ArsenalNoni Madueke Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot17
95:00ArsenalBukayo Saka Saved0.21RegularPlayfoot18

Match statistics

ArsenalLeeds
Corners34
Shots1311
Shots on target65
Shots off target43
Total passes512356
Pass accuracy %85.478.9
Fouls committed1220
Total yellow cards14

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.