Hull 2–2 Everton

2026-10-11 14:00, MKM Stadium. Half time 0–0. Joe Gelhardt 47', Mohamed Belloumi 73'; Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 54', Thierno Barry 67'

2026-10-11 14:00
Hull
2–2
Everton
1.7
expected goals
+0.2 to Hull
1.5

An even match on chances, 1.7 to 1.5 expected goals, and a draw.

9Shots15
1.43Expected goals from open play0.83
0.25From set pieces0.68
1.68Excluding penalties1.51
1.07As the rating counts them1.39
1.5Points the chances deserved1.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Hull creates 0.80 and allows 1.64; Everton creates 1.05 and allows 1.20.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Hull win 42 per cent, draw 27, Everton win 32. Hull deserved 1.5 points and took 1; Everton deserved 1.2 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Hull attack this way →← Everton attack this wayJames Garner 4': 0.05 expected goalsJack Grealish 8': 0.02 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 21': 0.05 expected goalsThierno Barry 26': 0.37 expected goalsJarrad Branthwaite 26': 0.05 expected goalsHarrison Armstrong 33': 0.21 expected goalsSorba Thomas 39': 0.03 expected goalsThierno Barry 40': 0.09 expected goalsMichael Keane 41': 0.01 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 43': 0.12 expected goalsNobel Mendy 43': 0.25 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 45': 0.17 expected goalsJack Grealish 45': 0.05 expected goalsThierno Barry 46': 0.14 expected goalsJoe Gelhardt 47': 0.73 expected goals, GOALBrennan Johnson 48': 0.05 expected goalsHarrison Armstrong 50': 0.02 expected goalsThierno Barry 52': 0.16 expected goalsKiernan Dewsbury-Hall 54': 0.18 expected goals, GOALThierno Barry 67': 0.10 expected goals, GOALJohn Egan 70': 0.06 expected goalsMohamed Belloumi 73': 0.17 expected goals, GOALMohamed Belloumi 79': 0.11 expected goalsCharly Alcaraz 88': 0.02 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteHull: 0Hull, 21': Joe Gelhardt, 0.05 expected goalsHull, 39': Sorba Thomas, 0.03 expected goalsHull, 43': Joe Gelhardt, 0.12 expected goalsHull, 43': Nobel Mendy, 0.25 expected goalsHull, 45': Joe Gelhardt, 0.17 expected goalsHull, 47': Joe Gelhardt, 0.73 expected goals, GOALHull, 70': John Egan, 0.06 expected goalsHull, 73': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.17 expected goals, GOALHull, 79': Mohamed Belloumi, 0.11 expected goalsHull: 1.68Everton: 0Everton, 4': James Garner, 0.05 expected goalsEverton, 8': Jack Grealish, 0.02 expected goalsEverton, 26': Thierno Barry, 0.37 expected goalsEverton, 26': Jarrad Branthwaite, 0.05 expected goalsEverton, 33': Harrison Armstrong, 0.21 expected goalsEverton, 40': Thierno Barry, 0.09 expected goalsEverton, 41': Michael Keane, 0.01 expected goalsEverton, 45': Jack Grealish, 0.05 expected goalsEverton, 46': Thierno Barry, 0.14 expected goalsEverton, 48': Brennan Johnson, 0.05 expected goalsEverton, 50': Harrison Armstrong, 0.02 expected goalsEverton, 52': Thierno Barry, 0.16 expected goalsEverton, 54': Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, 0.18 expected goals, GOALEverton, 67': Thierno Barry, 0.10 expected goals, GOALEverton, 88': Charly Alcaraz, 0.02 expected goalsEverton: 1.51HullEvertonGOAL Joe Gelhardt 47'GOAL Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 54'GOAL Thierno Barry 67'GOAL Mohamed Belloumi 73'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsHullEverton
In full1.681.51
Excluding penalties1.681.51
As the rating counts them1.071.39

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromHullEverton
Open play1.430.83
of which counter-attacks0.780.00
Set pieces0.250.68
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.250.85
Inside the box1.681.40
Shots915
Expected goals a shot0.190.10

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
4:11EvertonJames Garner Missed0.05DirectFreekickfoot28
8:30EvertonJack Grealish Saved0.02SetPiecefoot24
21:34HullJoe Gelhardt Saved0.05FastBreakfoot22
26:39EvertonThierno Barry Saved0.37FromCornerhead3
26:40EvertonJarrad Branthwaite Missed0.05FromCornerfoot9
33:22EvertonHarrison Armstrong Saved0.21RegularPlayfoot10
39:13HullSorba Thomas Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot25
40:20EvertonThierno Barry Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot14
41:03EvertonMichael Keane Blocked0.01FromCornerhead14
43:07HullJoe Gelhardt Saved0.12RegularPlayfoot13
43:40HullNobel Mendy Missed0.25FromCornerhead4
45:17HullJoe Gelhardt Saved0.17RegularPlayfoot17
45:44EvertonJack Grealish Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot18
46:54EvertonThierno Barry Missed0.14RegularPlayhead7
47:54HullJoe Gelhardt Goal0.73FastBreakfoot12
48:40EvertonBrennan Johnson Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot19
50:22EvertonHarrison Armstrong Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot25
52:34EvertonThierno Barry Saved0.16RegularPlayhead7
54:28EvertonKiernan Dewsbury-Hall Goal0.18FromCornerhead6
67:30EvertonThierno Barry Goal0.10RegularPlayfoot14
70:28HullJohn Egan Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot16
73:20HullMohamed Belloumi Goal0.17RegularPlayfoot13
79:49HullMohamed Belloumi Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot15
88:44EvertonCharly Alcaraz Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot28

Match statistics

HullEverton
Corners76
Shots915
Shots on target57
Shots off target25
Total passes307588
Pass accuracy %72.686.9
Fouls committed154
Total yellow cards20

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.