Leeds 4–1 Newcastle

2026-09-14 20:00, Elland Road. Half time 3–0. Lewis Miley 31' (own goal), Jayden Bogle 33', Dominic Calvert-Lewin 45', Noah Okafor 58'; Bazoumana Touré 89'

2026-09-14 20:00
Leeds
4–1
Newcastle
2.7
expected goals
+2.1 to Leeds
0.6

Leeds created more, 2.7 to 0.6 expected goals, and won.

15Shots7
2.65Expected goals from open play0.50
0.04From set pieces0.14
2.69Excluding penalties0.63
1.54As the rating counts them0.63
2.7Points the chances deserved0.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Leeds creates 1.09 and allows 1.24; Newcastle creates 1.31 and allows 1.26.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Leeds win 86 per cent, draw 10, Newcastle win 3. Leeds deserved 2.7 points and took 3; Newcastle deserved 0.2 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Leeds attack this way →← Newcastle attack this wayEthan Ampadu 10': 0.05 expected goalsJayden Bogle 13': 0.38 expected goalsJayden Bogle 24': 0.02 expected goalsNico Elvedi 26': 0.06 expected goalsNoah Okafor 27': 0.03 expected goalsAo Tanaka 31': 0.07 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 33': 0.67 expected goalsJayden Bogle 33': 0.21 expected goals, GOALDominic Calvert-Lewin 37': 0.59 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 37': 0.02 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 40': 0.22 expected goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin 45': 0.22 expected goals, GOALLewis Hall 53': 0.02 expected goalsAnton Stach 54': 0.25 expected goalsNoah Okafor 58': 0.02 expected goals, GOALHarvey Barnes 64': 0.03 expected goalsYoane Wissa 71': 0.07 expected goalsJoe Willock 71': 0.07 expected goalsJoe Willock 76': 0.02 expected goalsDaniel James 84': 0.03 expected goalsBazoumana Touré 89': 0.20 expected goals, GOALDaniel James 93': 0.05 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.001.002.0001122334455667788MinuteLeeds: 0Leeds, 10': Ethan Ampadu, 0.05 expected goalsLeeds, 13': Jayden Bogle, 0.38 expected goalsLeeds, 24': Jayden Bogle, 0.02 expected goalsLeeds, 26': Nico Elvedi, 0.06 expected goalsLeeds, 27': Noah Okafor, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 31': Ao Tanaka, 0.07 expected goalsLeeds, 33': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.67 expected goalsLeeds, 33': Jayden Bogle, 0.21 expected goals, GOALLeeds, 37': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.59 expected goalsLeeds, 37': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.02 expected goalsLeeds, 45': Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 0.22 expected goals, GOALLeeds, 54': Anton Stach, 0.25 expected goalsLeeds, 58': Noah Okafor, 0.02 expected goals, GOALLeeds, 84': Daniel James, 0.03 expected goalsLeeds, 93': Daniel James, 0.05 expected goalsLeeds: 2.69Newcastle: 0Newcastle, 40': Harvey Barnes, 0.22 expected goalsNewcastle, 53': Lewis Hall, 0.02 expected goalsNewcastle, 64': Harvey Barnes, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle, 71': Yoane Wissa, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 71': Joe Willock, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 76': Joe Willock, 0.02 expected goalsNewcastle, 89': Bazoumana Touré, 0.20 expected goals, GOALNewcastle: 0.63LeedsNewcastleGOAL Jayden Bogle 33'GOAL Dominic Calvert-Lewin 45'GOAL Noah Okafor 58'GOAL Bazoumana Touré 89'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsLeedsNewcastle
In full2.690.63
Excluding penalties2.690.63
As the rating counts them1.540.63

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromLeedsNewcastle
Open play2.650.50
of which counter-attacks0.620.22
Set pieces0.040.14
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.900.07
Inside the box2.450.55
Shots157
Expected goals a shot0.180.09

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
10:35LeedsEthan Ampadu Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot20
13:37LeedsJayden Bogle Saved0.38RegularPlayfoot6
24:54LeedsJayden Bogle Saved0.02FromCornerfoot22
26:19LeedsNico Elvedi Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot15
27:25LeedsNoah Okafor Blocked0.03FastBreakfoot29
31:12LeedsAo Tanaka Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
33:55LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Blocked0.67RegularPlayhead8
33:57LeedsJayden Bogle Goal0.21RegularPlayhead7
37:37LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Saved0.59FastBreakfoot5
37:59LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Missed0.02RegularPlayhead14
40:28NewcastleHarvey Barnes Saved0.22FastBreakfoot11
45:09LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin Goal0.22RegularPlayfoot11
53:02NewcastleLewis Hall Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot26
54:51LeedsAnton Stach Missed0.25RegularPlayfoot13
58:25LeedsNoah Okafor Goal0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot19
64:24NewcastleHarvey Barnes Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot23
71:22NewcastleYoane Wissa Missed0.07ThrowinSetPiecehead9
71:24NewcastleJoe Willock Post0.07ThrowinSetPiecefoot8
76:51NewcastleJoe Willock Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot27
84:06LeedsDaniel James Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot24
89:13NewcastleBazoumana Touré Goal0.20RegularPlayfoot9
93:00LeedsDaniel James Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot20

Match statistics

LeedsNewcastle
Corners55
Shots157
Shots on target65
Shots off target42
Total passes440433
Pass accuracy %83.682.4
Fouls committed813
Total yellow cards12

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.