Ipswich 2–1 Fulham

2026-10-10 15:00, Portman Road. Half time 0–0. Abdoul Ouattara 87', Dara O'Shea 90'; Ryan Sessegnon 54'

2026-10-10 15:00
Ipswich
2–1
Fulham
1.3
expected goals
+0.1 to Ipswich
1.2

Ipswich won a match that was close on chances, 1.3 to 1.2 expected goals.

11Shots13
0.84Expected goals from open play0.90
0.45From set pieces0.28
1.29Excluding penalties1.18
1.07As the rating counts them1.18
1.5Points the chances deserved1.3

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Ipswich creates 0.96 and allows 1.44; Fulham creates 1.11 and allows 1.24.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Ipswich win 39 per cent, draw 28, Fulham win 32. Ipswich deserved 1.5 points and took 3; Fulham deserved 1.3 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Ipswich attack this way →← Fulham attack this wayJulio Enciso 15': 0.17 expected goalsJaden Philogene 18': 0.03 expected goalsDavid Affengruber 21': 0.10 expected goalsRyan Sessegnon 23': 0.05 expected goalsSander Berge 27': 0.06 expected goalsShea Charles 27': 0.05 expected goalsSander Berge 29': 0.06 expected goalsGonzalo García 36': 0.06 expected goalsRyan Sessegnon 43': 0.05 expected goalsLeif Davis 49': 0.05 expected goalsJulio Enciso 51': 0.02 expected goalsGonzalo García 52': 0.22 expected goalsRyan Sessegnon 54': 0.02 expected goals, GOALEmersonn 57': 0.15 expected goalsOscar Bobb 57': 0.23 expected goalsGonzalo García 59': 0.04 expected goalsEmersonn 60': 0.10 expected goalsIssa Diop 67': 0.06 expected goalsSindre Egeli 85': 0.05 expected goalsChuba Akpom 85': 0.34 expected goalsAbdoul Ouattara 87': 0.01 expected goals, GOALDara O'Shea 90': 0.29 expected goals, GOALKevin 93': 0.19 expected goalsHugo Larsson 93': 0.06 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.0001122334455667788MinuteIpswich: 0Ipswich, 15': Julio Enciso, 0.17 expected goalsIpswich, 18': Jaden Philogene, 0.03 expected goalsIpswich, 49': Leif Davis, 0.05 expected goalsIpswich, 51': Julio Enciso, 0.02 expected goalsIpswich, 57': Emersonn, 0.15 expected goalsIpswich, 60': Emersonn, 0.10 expected goalsIpswich, 67': Issa Diop, 0.06 expected goalsIpswich, 85': Sindre Egeli, 0.05 expected goalsIpswich, 85': Chuba Akpom, 0.34 expected goalsIpswich, 87': Abdoul Ouattara, 0.01 expected goals, GOALIpswich, 90': Dara O'Shea, 0.29 expected goals, GOALIpswich: 1.29Fulham: 0Fulham, 21': David Affengruber, 0.10 expected goalsFulham, 23': Ryan Sessegnon, 0.05 expected goalsFulham, 27': Sander Berge, 0.06 expected goalsFulham, 27': Shea Charles, 0.05 expected goalsFulham, 29': Sander Berge, 0.06 expected goalsFulham, 36': Gonzalo García, 0.06 expected goalsFulham, 43': Ryan Sessegnon, 0.05 expected goalsFulham, 52': Gonzalo García, 0.22 expected goalsFulham, 54': Ryan Sessegnon, 0.02 expected goals, GOALFulham, 57': Oscar Bobb, 0.23 expected goalsFulham, 59': Gonzalo García, 0.04 expected goalsFulham, 93': Kevin, 0.19 expected goalsFulham, 93': Hugo Larsson, 0.06 expected goalsFulham: 1.18IpswichFulhamGOAL Ryan Sessegnon 54'GOAL Abdoul Ouattara 87'GOAL Dara O'Shea 90'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsIpswichFulham
In full1.291.18
Excluding penalties1.291.18
As the rating counts them1.071.18

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromIpswichFulham
Open play0.840.90
of which counter-attacks0.000.23
Set pieces0.450.28
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.550.19
Inside the box1.031.01
Shots1113
Expected goals a shot0.120.09

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
15:26IpswichJulio Enciso Missed0.17RegularPlayfoot22
18:03IpswichJaden Philogene Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot22
21:02FulhamDavid Affengruber Missed0.10FromCornerhead8
23:14FulhamRyan Sessegnon Missed0.05RegularPlayhead11
27:14FulhamSander Berge Blocked0.06DirectFreekickfoot25
27:18FulhamShea Charles Missed0.05SetPiecefoot18
29:58FulhamSander Berge Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot17
36:40FulhamGonzalo García Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot16
43:03FulhamRyan Sessegnon Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot20
49:03IpswichLeif Davis Missed0.05DirectFreekickfoot26
51:05IpswichJulio Enciso Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot27
52:57FulhamGonzalo García Saved0.22RegularPlayfoot9
54:29FulhamRyan Sessegnon Goal0.02FromCornerfoot24
57:39IpswichEmersonn Post0.15RegularPlayhead7
57:57FulhamOscar Bobb Missed0.23FastBreakfoot12
59:04FulhamGonzalo García Saved0.04RegularPlayhead11
60:30IpswichEmersonn Missed0.10RegularPlayhead9
67:48IpswichIssa Diop Missed0.06SetPiecefoot13
85:19IpswichSindre Egeli Saved0.05ThrowinSetPiecefoot16
85:24IpswichChuba Akpom Blocked0.34RegularPlayfoot6
87:58IpswichAbdoul Ouattara Goal0.01RegularPlayfoot28
90:59IpswichDara O'Shea Goal0.29SetPiecehead5
93:11FulhamKevin Saved0.19RegularPlayfoot10
93:38FulhamHugo Larsson Blocked0.06ThrowinSetPiecefoot14

Match statistics

IpswichFulham
Corners25
Shots1113
Shots on target55
Shots off target56
Total passes454505
Pass accuracy %85.783.2
Fouls committed810
Total yellow cards24

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.