Man Utd 1–1 Tottenham

2026-10-10 17:30, Old Trafford. Half time 0–0. Bryan Mbeumo 72'; Dominic Solanke 91'

2026-10-10 17:30
Man Utd
1–1
Tottenham
0.7
expected goals
-1.3 to Man Utd
2.0

Tottenham created more, 2.0 to 0.7 expected goals, and drew.

12Shots12
0.46Expected goals from open play1.79
0.29From set pieces0.22
0.75Excluding penalties2.00
0.75As the rating counts them1.15
0.5Points the chances deserved2.3

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Man Utd creates 1.49 and allows 1.18; Tottenham creates 1.18 and allows 1.32.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Man Utd win 10 per cent, draw 19, Tottenham win 71. Man Utd deserved 0.5 points and took 1; Tottenham deserved 2.3 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Man Utd attack this way →← Tottenham attack this wayDominic Solanke 2': 0.32 expected goalsDominic Solanke 5': 0.07 expected goalsLucas Bergvall 16': 0.04 expected goalsConor Gallagher 18': 0.17 expected goalsMohammed Kudus 20': 0.13 expected goalsSandro Tonali 33': 0.02 expected goalsAmad Diallo 33': 0.06 expected goalsConor Gallagher 41': 0.69 expected goalsAmad Diallo 48': 0.02 expected goalsDominic Solanke 50': 0.17 expected goalsSávio 56': 0.04 expected goalsMohammed Kudus 58': 0.03 expected goalsJoshua Zirkzee 61': 0.17 expected goalsCarlos Baleba 61': 0.03 expected goalsBruno Fernandes 62': 0.03 expected goalsSávio 68': 0.14 expected goalsHarry Maguire 71': 0.02 expected goalsBryan Mbeumo 72': 0.09 expected goals, GOALBryan Mbeumo 85': 0.07 expected goalsHarry Maguire 85': 0.07 expected goalsMatheus Cunha 89': 0.12 expected goalsDominic Solanke 91': 0.19 expected goals, GOALHarry Maguire 93': 0.02 expected goalsCarlos Baleba 98': 0.05 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001224364860728496MinuteMan Utd: 0Man Utd, 33': Amad Diallo, 0.06 expected goalsMan Utd, 48': Amad Diallo, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 61': Joshua Zirkzee, 0.17 expected goalsMan Utd, 61': Carlos Baleba, 0.03 expected goalsMan Utd, 62': Bruno Fernandes, 0.03 expected goalsMan Utd, 71': Harry Maguire, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 72': Bryan Mbeumo, 0.09 expected goals, GOALMan Utd, 85': Bryan Mbeumo, 0.07 expected goalsMan Utd, 85': Harry Maguire, 0.07 expected goalsMan Utd, 89': Matheus Cunha, 0.12 expected goalsMan Utd, 93': Harry Maguire, 0.02 expected goalsMan Utd, 98': Carlos Baleba, 0.05 expected goalsMan Utd: 0.75Tottenham: 0Tottenham, 2': Dominic Solanke, 0.32 expected goalsTottenham, 5': Dominic Solanke, 0.07 expected goalsTottenham, 16': Lucas Bergvall, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 18': Conor Gallagher, 0.17 expected goalsTottenham, 20': Mohammed Kudus, 0.13 expected goalsTottenham, 33': Sandro Tonali, 0.02 expected goalsTottenham, 41': Conor Gallagher, 0.69 expected goalsTottenham, 50': Dominic Solanke, 0.17 expected goalsTottenham, 56': Sávio, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 58': Mohammed Kudus, 0.03 expected goalsTottenham, 68': Sávio, 0.14 expected goalsTottenham, 91': Dominic Solanke, 0.19 expected goals, GOALTottenham: 2.00Man UtdTottenhamGOAL Bryan Mbeumo 72'GOAL Dominic Solanke 91'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsMan UtdTottenham
In full0.752.00
Excluding penalties0.752.00
As the rating counts them0.751.15

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromMan UtdTottenham
Open play0.461.79
of which counter-attacks0.130.00
Set pieces0.290.22
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.070.19
Inside the box0.651.84
Shots1212
Expected goals a shot0.060.17

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
2:12TottenhamDominic Solanke Saved0.32RegularPlayfoot14
5:20TottenhamDominic Solanke Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot17
16:20TottenhamLucas Bergvall Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot21
18:02TottenhamConor Gallagher Blocked0.17ThrowinSetPiecefoot15
20:12TottenhamMohammed Kudus Missed0.13RegularPlayfoot13
33:08TottenhamSandro Tonali Blocked0.02FromCornerfoot25
33:16Man UtdAmad Diallo Saved0.06FastBreakfoot22
41:25TottenhamConor Gallagher Saved0.69RegularPlayfoot6
48:03Man UtdAmad Diallo Missed0.02FromCornerfoot24
50:23TottenhamDominic Solanke Missed0.17RegularPlayfoot9
56:57TottenhamSávio Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot21
58:20TottenhamMohammed Kudus Blocked0.03FromCornerfoot18
61:06Man UtdJoshua Zirkzee Blocked0.17SetPiecefoot9
61:34Man UtdCarlos Baleba Missed0.03FromCornerfoot17
62:50Man UtdBruno Fernandes Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot24
68:10TottenhamSávio Blocked0.14RegularPlayfoot10
71:39Man UtdHarry Maguire Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot28
72:04Man UtdBryan Mbeumo Goal0.09RegularPlayfoot13
85:00Man UtdBryan Mbeumo Saved0.07FastBreakfoot19
85:48Man UtdHarry Maguire Missed0.07FromCornerhead8
89:30Man UtdMatheus Cunha Blocked0.12RegularPlayfoot13
91:19TottenhamDominic Solanke Goal0.19RegularPlayhead7
93:06Man UtdHarry Maguire Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot28
98:30Man UtdCarlos Baleba Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot21

Match statistics

Man UtdTottenham
Corners44
Shots1212
Shots on target43
Shots off target53
Total passes467464
Pass accuracy %83.384.1
Fouls committed1316
Total yellow cards43

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.