Everton 0–2 Chelsea

2026-10-17 12:30, Hill Dickinson Stadium. Half time 0–0. Pedro Neto 45', Pedro Neto 89'

2026-10-17 12:30
Everton
0–2
Chelsea
0.7
expected goals
-0.8 to Everton
1.5

Chelsea created more, 1.5 to 0.7 expected goals, and won.

6Shots18
0.27Expected goals from open play0.89
0.42From set pieces0.59
0.68Excluding penalties1.48
0.57As the rating counts them1.45
0.7Points the chances deserved2.0

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Everton creates 1.06 and allows 1.21; Chelsea creates 1.49 and allows 1.23.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Everton win 16 per cent, draw 27, Chelsea win 57. Everton deserved 0.7 points and took 0; Chelsea deserved 2.0 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Everton attack this way →← Chelsea attack this wayCole Palmer 14': 0.03 expected goalsJordan Henderson 20': 0.09 expected goalsMerlin Röhl 25': 0.07 expected goalsThierno Barry 26': 0.08 expected goalsJack Grealish 29': 0.05 expected goalsThierno Barry 36': 0.19 expected goalsMoisés Caicedo 39': 0.05 expected goalsPedro Neto 45': 0.02 expected goalsPedro Neto 45': 0.16 expected goals, GOALMaxence Lacroix 47': 0.28 expected goalsCole Palmer 52': 0.03 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 55': 0.20 expected goalsMorgan Rogers 55': 0.02 expected goalsCole Palmer 56': 0.02 expected goalsJoão Pedro 63': 0.04 expected goalsJoão Pedro 81': 0.07 expected goalsCole Palmer 81': 0.03 expected goalsJoão Pedro 85': 0.15 expected goalsCole Palmer 85': 0.08 expected goalsCole Palmer 86': 0.06 expected goalsJarrad Branthwaite 87': 0.23 expected goalsThierno Barry 87': 0.06 expected goalsJordan Henderson 89': 0.06 expected goalsPedro Neto 89': 0.09 expected goals, GOAL

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.0001122334455667788MinuteEverton: 0Everton, 25': Merlin Röhl, 0.07 expected goalsEverton, 26': Thierno Barry, 0.08 expected goalsEverton, 29': Jack Grealish, 0.05 expected goalsEverton, 36': Thierno Barry, 0.19 expected goalsEverton, 87': Jarrad Branthwaite, 0.23 expected goalsEverton, 87': Thierno Barry, 0.06 expected goalsEverton: 0.68Chelsea: 0Chelsea, 14': Cole Palmer, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 20': Jordan Henderson, 0.09 expected goalsChelsea, 39': Moisés Caicedo, 0.05 expected goalsChelsea, 45': Pedro Neto, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 45': Pedro Neto, 0.16 expected goals, GOALChelsea, 47': Maxence Lacroix, 0.28 expected goalsChelsea, 52': Cole Palmer, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 55': Morgan Rogers, 0.20 expected goalsChelsea, 55': Morgan Rogers, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 56': Cole Palmer, 0.02 expected goalsChelsea, 63': João Pedro, 0.04 expected goalsChelsea, 81': João Pedro, 0.07 expected goalsChelsea, 81': Cole Palmer, 0.03 expected goalsChelsea, 85': João Pedro, 0.15 expected goalsChelsea, 85': Cole Palmer, 0.08 expected goalsChelsea, 86': Cole Palmer, 0.06 expected goalsChelsea, 89': Jordan Henderson, 0.06 expected goalsChelsea, 89': Pedro Neto, 0.09 expected goals, GOALChelsea: 1.48EvertonChelseaGOAL Pedro Neto 45'GOAL Pedro Neto 89'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsEvertonChelsea
In full0.681.48
Excluding penalties0.681.48
As the rating counts them0.571.45

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromEvertonChelsea
Open play0.270.89
of which counter-attacks0.000.23
Set pieces0.420.59
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.140.42
Inside the box0.681.23
Shots618
Expected goals a shot0.110.08

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
14:35ChelseaCole Palmer Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot25
20:32ChelseaJordan Henderson Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot15
25:37EvertonMerlin Röhl Saved0.07RegularPlayfoot20
26:53EvertonThierno Barry Saved0.08FromCornerhead8
29:12EvertonJack Grealish Saved0.05SetPiecefoot17
36:56EvertonThierno Barry Saved0.19RegularPlayfoot11
39:43ChelseaMoisés Caicedo Post0.05FromCornerfoot16
45:32ChelseaPedro Neto Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot27
45:43ChelseaPedro Neto Goal0.16RegularPlayfoot11
47:11ChelseaMaxence Lacroix Saved0.28FromCornerhead4
52:48ChelseaCole Palmer Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot25
55:09ChelseaMorgan Rogers Blocked0.20RegularPlayfoot10
55:47ChelseaMorgan Rogers Missed0.02FromCornerfoot27
56:46ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot26
63:09ChelseaJoão Pedro Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot21
81:32ChelseaJoão Pedro Saved0.07FromCornerhead8
81:40ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.03FromCornerfoot28
85:23ChelseaJoão Pedro Saved0.15FastBreakfoot15
85:26ChelseaCole Palmer Missed0.08FastBreakhead13
86:34ChelseaCole Palmer Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot15
87:29EvertonJarrad Branthwaite Missed0.23ThrowinSetPiecefoot12
87:35EvertonThierno Barry Saved0.06ThrowinSetPiecehead9
89:53ChelseaJordan Henderson Blocked0.06DirectFreekickfoot24
89:56ChelseaPedro Neto Goal0.09SetPiecefoot14

Match statistics

EvertonChelsea
Corners57
Shots618
Shots on target57
Shots off target16
Total passes402454
Pass accuracy %80.384.6
Fouls committed815
Total yellow cards34

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.