Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal

2026-08-31 20:00, Villa Park. Half time 0–0. Bukayo Saka 58'

2026-08-31 20:00
Aston Villa
0–1
Arsenal
0.3
expected goals
-0.9 to Aston Villa
1.3

Arsenal created more, 1.3 to 0.3 expected goals, and won.

7Shots7
0.32Expected goals from open play1.02
0.00From set pieces0.23
0.32Excluding penalties1.25
0.32As the rating counts them0.65
0.4Points the chances deserved2.3

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.23 and allows 1.25; Arsenal creates 1.69 and allows 0.87.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Aston Villa win 6 per cent, draw 24, Arsenal win 70. Aston Villa deserved 0.4 points and took 0; Arsenal deserved 2.3 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Aston Villa attack this way →← Arsenal attack this wayJohn McGinn 6': 0.03 expected goalsMyles Lewis-Skelly 7': 0.17 expected goalsGabriel Magalhães 7': 0.07 expected goalsEmiliano Buendía 11': 0.03 expected goalsBukayo Saka 12': 0.06 expected goalsRiccardo Calafiori 17': 0.09 expected goalsIan Maatsen 26': 0.04 expected goalsIan Maatsen 46': 0.05 expected goalsMartin Ødegaard 56': 0.07 expected goalsBukayo Saka 58': 0.77 expected goals, GOALMatty Cash 64': 0.09 expected goalsRoss Barkley 67': 0.04 expected goalsJohn McGinn 69': 0.04 expected goalsKai Havertz 73': 0.03 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.0001122334455667788MinuteAston Villa: 0Aston Villa, 6': John McGinn, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 11': Emiliano Buendía, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 26': Ian Maatsen, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 46': Ian Maatsen, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 64': Matty Cash, 0.09 expected goalsAston Villa, 67': Ross Barkley, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 69': John McGinn, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa: 0.32Arsenal: 0Arsenal, 7': Myles Lewis-Skelly, 0.17 expected goalsArsenal, 7': Gabriel Magalhães, 0.07 expected goalsArsenal, 12': Bukayo Saka, 0.06 expected goalsArsenal, 17': Riccardo Calafiori, 0.09 expected goalsArsenal, 56': Martin Ødegaard, 0.07 expected goalsArsenal, 58': Bukayo Saka, 0.77 expected goals, GOALArsenal, 73': Kai Havertz, 0.03 expected goalsArsenal: 1.25Aston VillaArsenalGOAL Bukayo Saka 58'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsAston VillaArsenal
In full0.321.25
Excluding penalties0.321.25
As the rating counts them0.320.65

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromAston VillaArsenal
Open play0.321.02
of which counter-attacks0.000.00
Set pieces0.000.23
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.000.16
Inside the box0.181.13
Shots77
Expected goals a shot0.050.18

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
6:01Aston VillaJohn McGinn Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot25
7:12ArsenalMyles Lewis-Skelly Blocked0.17RegularPlayfoot20
7:53ArsenalGabriel Magalhães Missed0.07FromCornerhead7
11:02Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Post0.03RegularPlayfoot23
12:13ArsenalBukayo Saka Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot22
17:21ArsenalRiccardo Calafiori Missed0.09FromCornerhead7
26:13Aston VillaIan Maatsen Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot19
46:13Aston VillaIan Maatsen Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot18
56:46ArsenalMartin Ødegaard Missed0.07DirectFreekickfoot22
58:40ArsenalBukayo Saka Goal0.77RegularPlayfoot2
64:00Aston VillaMatty Cash Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot13
67:41Aston VillaRoss Barkley Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot20
69:30Aston VillaJohn McGinn Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot20
73:44ArsenalKai Havertz Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot24

Match statistics

Aston VillaArsenal
Corners24
Shots77
Shots on target02
Shots off target54
Total passes339530
Pass accuracy %80.587.7
Fouls committed176
Total yellow cards31

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.