Liverpool 2–2 Nottingham Forest

2026-08-29 12:30, Anfield. Half time 0–1. Alexander Isak 59', Víctor Muñoz 81'; Dan Ndoye 23', Morgan Gibbs-White 69'

2026-08-29 12:30
Liverpool
2–2
Nottingham Forest
1.5
expected goals
-0.9 to Liverpool
2.5

Nottingham Forest created more, 2.5 to 1.5 expected goals, and drew.

13Shots12
1.45Expected goals from open play1.37
0.08From set pieces0.27
0.00From penalties0.82
1.53Excluding penalties1.65
1.22As the rating counts them1.49
0.7Points the chances deserved2.1

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Liverpool creates 1.60 and allows 1.16; Nottingham Forest creates 1.13 and allows 1.24.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Liverpool win 16 per cent, draw 22, Nottingham Forest win 63. Liverpool deserved 0.7 points and took 1; Nottingham Forest deserved 2.1 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Liverpool attack this way →← Nottingham Forest attack this wayIgor Jesus 10': 0.82 expected goalsIgor Jesus 15': 0.08 expected goalsXaver Schlager 16': 0.03 expected goalsDan Ndoye 18': 0.10 expected goalsVíctor Muñoz 21': 0.01 expected goalsXaver Schlager 23': 0.02 expected goalsDan Ndoye 23': 0.07 expected goals, GOALDominik Szoboszlai 28': 0.06 expected goalsFlorian Wirtz 38': 0.07 expected goalsVíctor Muñoz 44': 0.16 expected goalsAlexander Isak 46': 0.03 expected goalsFlorian Wirtz 47': 0.26 expected goalsIgor Jesus 47': 0.15 expected goalsDan Ndoye 47': 0.09 expected goalsMurillo 48': 0.18 expected goalsAlexander Isak 59': 0.54 expected goals, GOALDominik Szoboszlai 62': 0.02 expected goalsNeco Williams 67': 0.05 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 69': 0.82 expected goals, GOALKostas Tsimikas 73': 0.05 expected goalsAlexander Isak 77': 0.15 expected goalsVíctor Muñoz 78': 0.06 expected goalsVíctor Muñoz 81': 0.07 expected goals, GOALLiam Delap 82': 0.06 expected goalsDominik Szoboszlai 85': 0.05 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001122334455667788MinuteLiverpool: 0Liverpool, 21': Víctor Muñoz, 0.01 expected goalsLiverpool, 28': Dominik Szoboszlai, 0.06 expected goalsLiverpool, 38': Florian Wirtz, 0.07 expected goalsLiverpool, 44': Víctor Muñoz, 0.16 expected goalsLiverpool, 46': Alexander Isak, 0.03 expected goalsLiverpool, 47': Florian Wirtz, 0.26 expected goalsLiverpool, 59': Alexander Isak, 0.54 expected goals, GOALLiverpool, 62': Dominik Szoboszlai, 0.02 expected goalsLiverpool, 73': Kostas Tsimikas, 0.05 expected goalsLiverpool, 77': Alexander Isak, 0.15 expected goalsLiverpool, 78': Víctor Muñoz, 0.06 expected goalsLiverpool, 81': Víctor Muñoz, 0.07 expected goals, GOALLiverpool, 85': Dominik Szoboszlai, 0.05 expected goalsLiverpool: 1.53Nottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 10': Igor Jesus, 0.82 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 15': Igor Jesus, 0.08 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 16': Xaver Schlager, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 18': Dan Ndoye, 0.10 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 23': Xaver Schlager, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 23': Dan Ndoye, 0.07 expected goals, GOALNottingham Forest, 47': Igor Jesus, 0.15 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 47': Dan Ndoye, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 48': Murillo, 0.18 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 67': Neco Williams, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 69': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.82 expected goals, GOALNottingham Forest, 82': Liam Delap, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 2.47LiverpoolNottingham ForestGOAL Dan Ndoye 23'GOAL Alexander Isak 59'GOAL Morgan Gibbs-White 69'GOAL Víctor Muñoz 81'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsLiverpoolNottingham Forest
In full1.532.47
Excluding penalties1.531.65
As the rating counts them1.221.49

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromLiverpoolNottingham Forest
Open play1.451.37
of which counter-attacks0.000.00
Set pieces0.080.27
Penalties0.000.82
Headers0.110.28
Inside the box1.341.62
Shots1312
Expected goals a shot0.120.21

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
10:42Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Blocked0.82RegularPlayfoot2
15:49Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Blocked0.08RegularPlayfoot15
16:30Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Blocked0.03FromCornerfoot20
18:20Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.10RegularPlayhead8
21:16LiverpoolVíctor Muñoz Missed0.01RegularPlayfoot31
23:20Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Blocked0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot20
23:39Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Goal0.07RegularPlayfoot16
28:57LiverpoolDominik Szoboszlai Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot19
38:04LiverpoolFlorian Wirtz Saved0.07RegularPlayhead10
44:09LiverpoolVíctor Muñoz Missed0.16RegularPlayfoot11
46:12LiverpoolAlexander Isak Blocked0.03FromCornerhead10
47:18LiverpoolFlorian Wirtz Blocked0.26RegularPlayfoot7
47:19Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Saved0.15RegularPlayfoot11
47:50Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot16
48:00Nottingham ForestMurillo Blocked0.18FromCornerhead5
59:21LiverpoolAlexander Isak Goal0.54RegularPlayfoot4
62:47LiverpoolDominik Szoboszlai Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot29
67:42Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Missed0.05ThrowinSetPiecefoot16
69:51Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Goal0.82Penaltyfoot11
73:17LiverpoolKostas Tsimikas Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot18
77:37LiverpoolAlexander Isak Missed0.15RegularPlayfoot9
78:35LiverpoolVíctor Muñoz Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot18
81:24LiverpoolVíctor Muñoz Goal0.07RegularPlayfoot17
82:23Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot17
85:03LiverpoolDominik Szoboszlai Missed0.05DirectFreekickfoot26

Match statistics

LiverpoolNottingham Forest
Corners35
Shots1312
Shots on target43
Shots off target53
Total passes631288
Pass accuracy %89.167.0
Fouls committed1310
Total yellow cards42

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.