Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry

2026-09-19 17:30, The City Ground. Half time 0–0. Jay Dasilva 54'

2026-09-19 17:30
Nottingham Forest
0–1
Coventry
1.5
expected goals
+1.0 to Nottingham Forest
0.6

Coventry won with 0.6 expected goals to 1.5: the result went against the performance.

24Shots10
1.15Expected goals from open play0.40
0.37From set pieces0.17
1.52Excluding penalties0.57
1.52As the rating counts them0.57
2.1Points the chances deserved0.6

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Nottingham Forest creates 1.15 and allows 1.22; Coventry creates 0.95 and allows 1.40.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Nottingham Forest win 62 per cent, draw 25, Coventry win 13. Nottingham Forest deserved 2.1 points and took 0; Coventry deserved 0.6 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Nottingham Forest attack this way →← Coventry attack this wayJames McAtee 0': 0.03 expected goalsJack Rudoni 2': 0.10 expected goalsDan Ndoye 12': 0.10 expected goalsJames McAtee 12': 0.07 expected goalsMatt Grimes 14': 0.02 expected goalsBrandon Thomas-Asante 15': 0.05 expected goalsDan Ndoye 17': 0.07 expected goalsNeco Williams 19': 0.02 expected goalsJay Dasilva 24': 0.04 expected goalsBrandon Thomas-Asante 27': 0.03 expected goalsNeco Williams 28': 0.02 expected goalsEphron Mason-Clark 33': 0.01 expected goalsDan Ndoye 34': 0.06 expected goalsLiam Delap 34': 0.14 expected goalsDaniel Muñoz 34': 0.09 expected goalsJair Cunha 34': 0.05 expected goalsLiam Delap 34': 0.03 expected goalsJames McAtee 36': 0.02 expected goalsMurillo 37': 0.06 expected goalsXaver Schlager 45': 0.05 expected goalsJames McAtee 45': 0.11 expected goalsDaniel Muñoz 46': 0.04 expected goalsLoum Tchaouna 52': 0.09 expected goalsJay Dasilva 54': 0.10 expected goals, GOALBobby Thomas 57': 0.08 expected goalsOusmane Diomande 60': 0.05 expected goalsNeco Williams 68': 0.05 expected goalsLiam Delap 71': 0.03 expected goalsIgor Jesus 75': 0.26 expected goalsLiam Delap 76': 0.06 expected goalsIgor Jesus 78': 0.05 expected goalsBrandon Thomas-Asante 79': 0.05 expected goalsXaver Schlager 84': 0.05 expected goalsMurillo 95': 0.01 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteNottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 0': James McAtee, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 12': Dan Ndoye, 0.10 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 12': James McAtee, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 17': Dan Ndoye, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 19': Neco Williams, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 28': Neco Williams, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Dan Ndoye, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Liam Delap, 0.14 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Daniel Muñoz, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Jair Cunha, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Liam Delap, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 36': James McAtee, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 37': Murillo, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 45': Xaver Schlager, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 45': James McAtee, 0.11 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 46': Daniel Muñoz, 0.04 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 60': Ousmane Diomande, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 68': Neco Williams, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 71': Liam Delap, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 75': Igor Jesus, 0.26 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 76': Liam Delap, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 78': Igor Jesus, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 84': Xaver Schlager, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 95': Murillo, 0.01 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 1.52Coventry: 0Coventry, 2': Jack Rudoni, 0.10 expected goalsCoventry, 14': Matt Grimes, 0.02 expected goalsCoventry, 15': Brandon Thomas-Asante, 0.05 expected goalsCoventry, 24': Jay Dasilva, 0.04 expected goalsCoventry, 27': Brandon Thomas-Asante, 0.03 expected goalsCoventry, 33': Ephron Mason-Clark, 0.01 expected goalsCoventry, 52': Loum Tchaouna, 0.09 expected goalsCoventry, 54': Jay Dasilva, 0.10 expected goals, GOALCoventry, 57': Bobby Thomas, 0.08 expected goalsCoventry, 79': Brandon Thomas-Asante, 0.05 expected goalsCoventry: 0.57Nottingham ForestCoventryGOAL Jay Dasilva 54'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsNottingham ForestCoventry
In full1.520.57
Excluding penalties1.520.57
As the rating counts them1.520.57

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromNottingham ForestCoventry
Open play1.150.40
of which counter-attacks0.000.19
Set pieces0.370.17
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.260.15
Inside the box1.070.34
Shots2410
Expected goals a shot0.060.06

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
0:50Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot25
2:55CoventryJack Rudoni Missed0.10FastBreakfoot19
12:59Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.10RegularPlayfoot14
12:59Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
14:33CoventryMatt Grimes Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot26
15:36CoventryBrandon Thomas-Asante Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot19
17:44Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot18
19:29Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Saved0.02RegularPlayfoot26
24:52CoventryJay Dasilva Missed0.04SetPiecefoot18
27:00CoventryBrandon Thomas-Asante Missed0.03RegularPlayhead13
28:39Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Blocked0.02SetPiecefoot26
33:42CoventryEphron Mason-Clark Blocked0.01RegularPlayfoot27
34:24Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot13
34:26Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Blocked0.14RegularPlayfoot12
34:29Nottingham ForestDaniel Muñoz Missed0.09RegularPlayhead10
34:31Nottingham ForestJair Cunha Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot19
34:48Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot25
36:45Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot28
37:44Nottingham ForestMurillo Missed0.06FromCornerhead8
45:11Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Blocked0.05SetPiecefoot22
45:58Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Blocked0.11ThrowinSetPiecefoot11
46:00Nottingham ForestDaniel Muñoz Blocked0.04ThrowinSetPiecefoot18
52:00CoventryLoum Tchaouna Saved0.09FastBreakfoot18
54:55CoventryJay Dasilva Goal0.10RegularPlayfoot17
57:57CoventryBobby Thomas Missed0.08SetPiecehead9
60:09Nottingham ForestOusmane Diomande Missed0.05FromCornerhead9
68:26Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Blocked0.05SetPiecefoot16
71:58Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot24
75:52Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Saved0.26RegularPlayfoot10
76:32Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot16
78:03Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Blocked0.05RegularPlayhead11
79:36CoventryBrandon Thomas-Asante Missed0.05SetPiecehead10
84:15Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot19
95:53Nottingham ForestMurillo Blocked0.01RegularPlayfoot31

Match statistics

Nottingham ForestCoventry
Corners62
Shots2410
Shots on target33
Shots off target96
Total passes508311
Pass accuracy %84.175.9
Fouls committed1210
Total yellow cards20

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.