Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa

2026-09-19 12:30, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Half time 0–1. Conor Gallagher 85', Jan Paul van Hecke 97'; Johan Manzambi 48', Nicolas Jackson 66', Emiliano Buendía 78'

2026-09-19 12:30
Tottenham
2–3
Aston Villa
1.4
expected goals
-1.0 to Tottenham
2.4

Aston Villa created more, 2.4 to 1.4 expected goals, and won.

20Shots15
0.91Expected goals from open play2.37
0.46From set pieces0.00
1.37Excluding penalties2.37
1.37As the rating counts them1.30
0.7Points the chances deserved2.1

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Tottenham creates 1.17 and allows 1.30; Aston Villa creates 1.19 and allows 1.23.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Tottenham win 17 per cent, draw 20, Aston Villa win 63. Tottenham deserved 0.7 points and took 0; Aston Villa deserved 2.1 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Tottenham attack this way →← Aston Villa attack this waySávio 10': 0.19 expected goalsSávio 10': 0.18 expected goalsPedro Porro 10': 0.02 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 14': 0.03 expected goalsArchie Gray 20': 0.16 expected goalsSávio 20': 0.02 expected goalsMateus Fernandes 23': 0.02 expected goalsEmiliano Buendía 26': 0.30 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 27': 0.10 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 30': 0.04 expected goalsSandro Tonali 32': 0.02 expected goalsDominic Solanke 33': 0.05 expected goalsSandro Tonali 33': 0.04 expected goalsMatteo Ruggeri 40': 0.02 expected goalsBoubacar Kamara 48': 0.25 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 48': 0.89 expected goals, GOALMateus Fernandes 49': 0.04 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 52': 0.17 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 52': 0.10 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 52': 0.11 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 55': 0.04 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 57': 0.05 expected goalsDominic Solanke 65': 0.04 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 66': 0.12 expected goals, GOALSandro Tonali 69': 0.03 expected goalsOmar Marmoush 74': 0.04 expected goalsMohammed Kudus 75': 0.03 expected goalsEmiliano Buendía 78': 0.03 expected goals, GOALJames Maddison 80': 0.03 expected goalsConor Gallagher 85': 0.21 expected goals, GOALEmiliano Buendía 87': 0.09 expected goalsJames Maddison 92': 0.04 expected goalsMohammed Kudus 92': 0.04 expected goalsMicky van de Ven 94': 0.02 expected goalsJan Paul van Hecke 97': 0.12 expected goals, GOAL

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001224364860728496MinuteTottenham: 0Tottenham, 10': Sávio, 0.19 expected goalsTottenham, 10': Sávio, 0.18 expected goalsTottenham, 10': Pedro Porro, 0.02 expected goalsTottenham, 20': Archie Gray, 0.16 expected goalsTottenham, 20': Sávio, 0.02 expected goalsTottenham, 23': Mateus Fernandes, 0.02 expected goalsTottenham, 32': Sandro Tonali, 0.02 expected goalsTottenham, 33': Dominic Solanke, 0.05 expected goalsTottenham, 33': Sandro Tonali, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 49': Mateus Fernandes, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 65': Dominic Solanke, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 69': Sandro Tonali, 0.03 expected goalsTottenham, 74': Omar Marmoush, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 75': Mohammed Kudus, 0.03 expected goalsTottenham, 80': James Maddison, 0.03 expected goalsTottenham, 85': Conor Gallagher, 0.21 expected goals, GOALTottenham, 92': James Maddison, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 92': Mohammed Kudus, 0.04 expected goalsTottenham, 94': Micky van de Ven, 0.02 expected goalsTottenham, 97': Jan Paul van Hecke, 0.12 expected goals, GOALTottenham: 1.37Aston Villa: 0Aston Villa, 14': Johan Manzambi, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 26': Emiliano Buendía, 0.30 expected goalsAston Villa, 27': Nicolas Jackson, 0.10 expected goalsAston Villa, 30': Johan Manzambi, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 40': Matteo Ruggeri, 0.02 expected goalsAston Villa, 48': Boubacar Kamara, 0.25 expected goalsAston Villa, 48': Johan Manzambi, 0.89 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 52': Nicolas Jackson, 0.17 expected goalsAston Villa, 52': Johan Manzambi, 0.10 expected goalsAston Villa, 52': Nicolas Jackson, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 55': Nicolas Jackson, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 57': Nicolas Jackson, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 66': Nicolas Jackson, 0.12 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 78': Emiliano Buendía, 0.03 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 87': Emiliano Buendía, 0.09 expected goalsAston Villa: 2.37TottenhamAston VillaGOAL Johan Manzambi 48'GOAL Nicolas Jackson 66'GOAL Emiliano Buendía 78'GOAL Conor Gallagher 85'GOAL Jan Paul van Hecke 97'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsTottenhamAston Villa
In full1.372.37
Excluding penalties1.372.37
As the rating counts them1.371.30

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromTottenhamAston Villa
Open play0.912.37
of which counter-attacks0.000.14
Set pieces0.460.00
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.270.00
Inside the box1.142.07
Shots2015
Expected goals a shot0.070.16

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
10:07TottenhamSávio Saved0.19RegularPlayfoot11
10:10TottenhamSávio Saved0.18RegularPlayfoot9
10:59TottenhamPedro Porro Missed0.02FromCornerfoot28
14:50Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot22
20:00TottenhamArchie Gray Saved0.16RegularPlayfoot13
20:37TottenhamSávio Saved0.02FromCornerfoot22
23:40TottenhamMateus Fernandes Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot27
26:02Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Saved0.30RegularPlayfoot15
27:32Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Missed0.10RegularPlayfoot18
30:16Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Missed0.04FastBreakfoot26
32:00TottenhamSandro Tonali Blocked0.02RegularPlayfoot28
33:27TottenhamDominic Solanke Blocked0.05FromCornerhead7
33:29TottenhamSandro Tonali Blocked0.04FromCornerfoot13
40:01Aston VillaMatteo Ruggeri Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot25
48:32Aston VillaBoubacar Kamara Missed0.25RegularPlayfoot15
48:33Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Goal0.89RegularPlayfoot4
49:58TottenhamMateus Fernandes Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot19
52:13Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Saved0.17RegularPlayfoot18
52:24Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.10RegularPlayfoot15
52:29Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Missed0.11RegularPlayfoot14
55:39Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Missed0.04FastBreakfoot29
57:28Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Blocked0.05FastBreakfoot24
65:17TottenhamDominic Solanke Missed0.04FromCornerhead9
66:16Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Goal0.12RegularPlayfoot16
69:41TottenhamSandro Tonali Missed0.03FromCornerfoot24
74:47TottenhamOmar Marmoush Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot21
75:24TottenhamMohammed Kudus Missed0.03FromCornerfoot18
78:41Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Goal0.03RegularPlayfoot25
80:48TottenhamJames Maddison Missed0.03RegularPlayhead12
85:46TottenhamConor Gallagher Goal0.21RegularPlayfoot8
87:20Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot14
92:12TottenhamJames Maddison Saved0.04DirectFreekickfoot26
92:15TottenhamMohammed Kudus Missed0.04SetPiecefoot15
94:06TottenhamMicky van de Ven Missed0.02FromCornerhead13
97:28TottenhamJan Paul van Hecke Goal0.12SetPiecehead8

Match statistics

TottenhamAston Villa
Corners111
Shots2015
Shots on target76
Shots off target96
Total passes581336
Pass accuracy %86.783.3
Fouls committed913
Total yellow cards12

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.