Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford

2026-10-10 15:00, Villa Park. Half time 1–1. Nicolas Jackson 11', John McGinn 76'; Yehor Yarmoliuk 9', Kristoffer Ajer 78'

2026-10-10 15:00
Aston Villa
2–2
Brentford
1.9
expected goals
+0.6 to Aston Villa
1.4

Aston Villa created more, 1.9 to 1.4 expected goals, and drew.

20Shots14
1.87Expected goals from open play1.19
0.06From set pieces0.18
1.93Excluding penalties1.38
1.77As the rating counts them1.07
1.8Points the chances deserved1.0

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.21 and allows 1.24; Brentford creates 1.29 and allows 1.23.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Aston Villa win 51 per cent, draw 23, Brentford win 26. Aston Villa deserved 1.8 points and took 1; Brentford deserved 1.0 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Aston Villa attack this way →← Brentford attack this wayKevin Schade 3': 0.11 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 8': 0.21 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 8': 0.02 expected goalsYehor Yarmoliuk 9': 0.09 expected goals, GOALEmiliano Buendía 11': 0.03 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 11': 0.18 expected goals, GOALKevin Schade 16': 0.06 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 30': 0.12 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 30': 0.11 expected goalsEmiliano Buendía 30': 0.11 expected goalsJaidon Anthony 31': 0.09 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 46': 0.10 expected goalsKevin Schade 46': 0.05 expected goalsKevin Schade 48': 0.43 expected goalsKeane Lewis-Potter 49': 0.04 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 49': 0.05 expected goalsJohn McGinn 49': 0.31 expected goalsIgor Thiago 53': 0.14 expected goalsEl Hadji Malick Diouf 56': 0.01 expected goalsEmiliano Buendía 57': 0.05 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 59': 0.07 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 59': 0.05 expected goalsEmiliano Buendía 61': 0.07 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 69': 0.11 expected goalsJaidon Anthony 72': 0.05 expected goalsJohn McGinn 76': 0.06 expected goals, GOALKristoffer Ajer 78': 0.05 expected goalsKristoffer Ajer 78': 0.12 expected goals, GOALJohan Manzambi 82': 0.06 expected goalsJohn McGinn 83': 0.11 expected goalsDango Ouattara 85': 0.06 expected goalsBoubacar Kamara 86': 0.04 expected goalsEl Hadji Malick Diouf 94': 0.06 expected goalsIbrahim Mbaye 95': 0.06 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.5001122334455667788MinuteAston Villa: 0Aston Villa, 8': Nicolas Jackson, 0.21 expected goalsAston Villa, 8': Johan Manzambi, 0.02 expected goalsAston Villa, 11': Emiliano Buendía, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 11': Nicolas Jackson, 0.18 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 30': Johan Manzambi, 0.12 expected goalsAston Villa, 30': Johan Manzambi, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 30': Emiliano Buendía, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 46': Nicolas Jackson, 0.10 expected goalsAston Villa, 49': Nicolas Jackson, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 49': John McGinn, 0.31 expected goalsAston Villa, 57': Emiliano Buendía, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 59': Johan Manzambi, 0.07 expected goalsAston Villa, 59': Johan Manzambi, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 61': Emiliano Buendía, 0.07 expected goalsAston Villa, 69': Johan Manzambi, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 76': John McGinn, 0.06 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 82': Johan Manzambi, 0.06 expected goalsAston Villa, 83': John McGinn, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 86': Boubacar Kamara, 0.04 expected goalsAston Villa, 95': Ibrahim Mbaye, 0.06 expected goalsAston Villa: 1.93Brentford: 0Brentford, 3': Kevin Schade, 0.11 expected goalsBrentford, 9': Yehor Yarmoliuk, 0.09 expected goals, GOALBrentford, 16': Kevin Schade, 0.06 expected goalsBrentford, 31': Jaidon Anthony, 0.09 expected goalsBrentford, 46': Kevin Schade, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 48': Kevin Schade, 0.43 expected goalsBrentford, 49': Keane Lewis-Potter, 0.04 expected goalsBrentford, 53': Igor Thiago, 0.14 expected goalsBrentford, 56': El Hadji Malick Diouf, 0.01 expected goalsBrentford, 72': Jaidon Anthony, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 78': Kristoffer Ajer, 0.05 expected goalsBrentford, 78': Kristoffer Ajer, 0.12 expected goals, GOALBrentford, 85': Dango Ouattara, 0.06 expected goalsBrentford, 94': El Hadji Malick Diouf, 0.06 expected goalsBrentford: 1.38Aston VillaBrentfordGOAL Yehor Yarmoliuk 9'GOAL Nicolas Jackson 11'GOAL John McGinn 76'GOAL Kristoffer Ajer 78'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsAston VillaBrentford
In full1.931.38
Excluding penalties1.931.38
As the rating counts them1.771.07

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromAston VillaBrentford
Open play1.871.19
of which counter-attacks0.110.55
Set pieces0.060.18
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.000.10
Inside the box1.671.25
Shots2014
Expected goals a shot0.100.10

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
3:45BrentfordKevin Schade Missed0.11FastBreakfoot18
8:28Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Blocked0.21RegularPlayfoot17
8:38Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot27
9:58BrentfordYehor Yarmoliuk Goal0.09RegularPlayfoot15
11:24Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot22
11:26Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Goal0.18RegularPlayfoot9
16:01BrentfordKevin Schade Missed0.06ThrowinSetPiecehead8
30:03Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.12RegularPlayfoot14
30:04Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Saved0.11RegularPlayfoot15
30:06Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Missed0.11RegularPlayfoot12
31:02BrentfordJaidon Anthony Saved0.09RegularPlayfoot18
46:11Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Missed0.10RegularPlayfoot15
46:50BrentfordKevin Schade Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot16
48:56BrentfordKevin Schade Saved0.43FastBreakfoot16
49:12BrentfordKeane Lewis-Potter Blocked0.04RegularPlayfoot21
49:50Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot20
49:52Aston VillaJohn McGinn Saved0.31RegularPlayfoot8
53:30BrentfordIgor Thiago Missed0.14RegularPlayfoot10
56:04BrentfordEl Hadji Malick Diouf Missed0.01ThrowinSetPiecefoot27
57:55Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot18
59:38Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
59:55Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Missed0.05RegularPlayfoot19
61:03Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
69:30Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.11FastBreakfoot17
72:38BrentfordJaidon Anthony Missed0.05RegularPlayhead11
76:10Aston VillaJohn McGinn Goal0.06RegularPlayfoot16
78:17BrentfordKristoffer Ajer Blocked0.05ThrowinSetPiecefoot14
78:36BrentfordKristoffer Ajer Goal0.12RegularPlayfoot12
82:46Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.06DirectFreekickfoot25
83:23Aston VillaJohn McGinn Saved0.11RegularPlayfoot14
85:51BrentfordDango Ouattara Missed0.06SetPiecefoot15
86:39Aston VillaBoubacar Kamara Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot18
94:07BrentfordEl Hadji Malick Diouf Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot16
95:09Aston VillaIbrahim Mbaye Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot13

Match statistics

Aston VillaBrentford
Corners22
Shots2014
Shots on target74
Shots off target67
Total passes402361
Pass accuracy %79.979.2
Fouls committed724
Total yellow cards25

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.