Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest

2026-10-11 14:00, Selhurst Park. Half time 2–1. Daichi Kamada 40', Jefferson Lerma 48', Yéremy Pino 58'; Dan Ndoye 2'

2026-10-11 14:00
Crystal Palace
3–1
Nottingham Forest
1.8
expected goals
-1.1 to Crystal Palace
2.9

Crystal Palace won with 1.8 expected goals to 2.9: the result went against the performance.

13Shots24
1.17Expected goals from open play1.98
0.60From set pieces0.88
1.78Excluding penalties2.86
1.65As the rating counts them2.37
0.8Points the chances deserved2.0

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Crystal Palace creates 1.16 and allows 1.30; Nottingham Forest creates 1.14 and allows 1.21.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Crystal Palace win 20 per cent, draw 18, Nottingham Forest win 62. Crystal Palace deserved 0.8 points and took 3; Nottingham Forest deserved 2.0 and took 0.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Crystal Palace attack this way →← Nottingham Forest attack this wayDan Ndoye 2': 0.16 expected goals, GOALMurillo 6': 0.16 expected goalsJørgen Strand Larsen 7': 0.28 expected goalsJørgen Strand Larsen 7': 0.12 expected goalsJefferson Lerma 8': 0.02 expected goalsQuinten Timber 10': 0.10 expected goalsJames McAtee 17': 0.05 expected goalsMurillo 17': 0.06 expected goalsXaver Schlager 18': 0.03 expected goalsMurillo 19': 0.03 expected goalsDan Ndoye 20': 0.12 expected goalsOusmane Diomande 20': 0.11 expected goalsDaniel Muñoz 26': 0.17 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 31': 0.08 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 34': 0.03 expected goalsLiam Delap 34': 0.66 expected goalsLiam Delap 39': 0.15 expected goalsDaichi Kamada 40': 0.35 expected goals, GOALTyrick Mitchell 47': 0.02 expected goalsJefferson Lerma 48': 0.21 expected goals, GOALXaver Schlager 48': 0.11 expected goalsMurillo 48': 0.10 expected goalsOla Aina 49': 0.03 expected goalsXaver Schlager 50': 0.02 expected goalsNeco Williams 50': 0.04 expected goalsDan Ndoye 50': 0.09 expected goalsJefferson Lerma 55': 0.07 expected goalsJørgen Strand Larsen 58': 0.16 expected goalsYéremy Pino 58': 0.16 expected goals, GOALDan Ndoye 64': 0.19 expected goalsNeco Williams 67': 0.06 expected goalsNeco Williams 69': 0.07 expected goalsAnan Khalaili 73': 0.02 expected goalsAnan Khalaili 73': 0.20 expected goalsChris Wood 79': 0.25 expected goalsChris Richards 91': 0.06 expected goalsDaniel Muñoz 94': 0.08 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.001.002.0001122334455667788MinuteCrystal Palace: 0Crystal Palace, 7': Jørgen Strand Larsen, 0.28 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 7': Jørgen Strand Larsen, 0.12 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 8': Jefferson Lerma, 0.02 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 10': Quinten Timber, 0.10 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 40': Daichi Kamada, 0.35 expected goals, GOALCrystal Palace, 47': Tyrick Mitchell, 0.02 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 48': Jefferson Lerma, 0.21 expected goals, GOALCrystal Palace, 55': Jefferson Lerma, 0.07 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 58': Jørgen Strand Larsen, 0.16 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 58': Yéremy Pino, 0.16 expected goals, GOALCrystal Palace, 73': Anan Khalaili, 0.02 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 73': Anan Khalaili, 0.20 expected goalsCrystal Palace, 91': Chris Richards, 0.06 expected goalsCrystal Palace: 1.78Nottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 2': Dan Ndoye, 0.16 expected goals, GOALNottingham Forest, 6': Murillo, 0.16 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 17': James McAtee, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 17': Murillo, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 18': Xaver Schlager, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 19': Murillo, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 20': Dan Ndoye, 0.12 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 20': Ousmane Diomande, 0.11 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 26': Daniel Muñoz, 0.17 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 31': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.08 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Liam Delap, 0.66 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 39': Liam Delap, 0.15 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 48': Xaver Schlager, 0.11 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 48': Murillo, 0.10 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 49': Ola Aina, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 50': Xaver Schlager, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 50': Neco Williams, 0.04 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 50': Dan Ndoye, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 64': Dan Ndoye, 0.19 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 67': Neco Williams, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 69': Neco Williams, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 79': Chris Wood, 0.25 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 94': Daniel Muñoz, 0.08 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 2.86Crystal PalaceNottingham ForestGOAL Dan Ndoye 2'GOAL Daichi Kamada 40'GOAL Jefferson Lerma 48'GOAL Yéremy Pino 58'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsCrystal PalaceNottingham Forest
In full1.782.86
Excluding penalties1.782.86
As the rating counts them1.652.37

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromCrystal PalaceNottingham Forest
Open play1.171.98
of which counter-attacks0.100.33
Set pieces0.600.88
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.580.71
Inside the box1.652.49
Shots1324
Expected goals a shot0.140.12

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
2:38Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Goal0.16RegularPlayfoot19
6:34Nottingham ForestMurillo Saved0.16ThrowinSetPiecefoot8
7:09Crystal PalaceJørgen Strand Larsen Saved0.28RegularPlayfoot6
7:11Crystal PalaceJørgen Strand Larsen Blocked0.12RegularPlayfoot8
8:22Crystal PalaceJefferson Lerma Missed0.02ThrowinSetPiecehead12
10:29Crystal PalaceQuinten Timber Missed0.10FastBreakfoot17
17:24Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Blocked0.05DirectFreekickfoot26
17:26Nottingham ForestMurillo Blocked0.06SetPiecefoot17
18:00Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Blocked0.03FromCornerfoot14
19:22Nottingham ForestMurillo Missed0.03SetPiecefoot20
20:16Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Saved0.12RegularPlayhead8
20:59Nottingham ForestOusmane Diomande Blocked0.11FromCornerfoot9
26:40Nottingham ForestDaniel Muñoz Missed0.17RegularPlayfoot10
31:36Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.08FastBreakfoot19
34:03Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot24
34:05Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Saved0.66RegularPlayfoot4
39:43Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.15RegularPlayhead7
40:36Crystal PalaceDaichi Kamada Goal0.35RegularPlayfoot6
47:29Crystal PalaceTyrick Mitchell Saved0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot26
48:03Crystal PalaceJefferson Lerma Goal0.21FromCornerhead5
48:24Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Blocked0.11FromCornerfoot8
48:28Nottingham ForestMurillo Saved0.10FromCornerhead8
49:37Nottingham ForestOla Aina Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot24
50:41Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Missed0.02ThrowinSetPiecefoot21
50:43Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Blocked0.04ThrowinSetPiecefoot20
50:44Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.09ThrowinSetPiecefoot12
55:02Crystal PalaceJefferson Lerma Saved0.07FromCornerhead8
58:01Crystal PalaceJørgen Strand Larsen Saved0.16RegularPlayfoot10
58:03Crystal PalaceYéremy Pino Goal0.16RegularPlayfoot10
64:42Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.19FastBreakfoot12
67:20Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Post0.06FastBreakfoot22
69:51Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Blocked0.07RegularPlayfoot18
73:01Crystal PalaceAnan Khalaili Blocked0.02SetPiecehead15
73:34Crystal PalaceAnan Khalaili Missed0.20FromCornerhead5
79:52Nottingham ForestChris Wood Saved0.25RegularPlayhead6
91:30Crystal PalaceChris Richards Missed0.06FromCornerhead9
94:33Nottingham ForestDaniel Muñoz Missed0.08FromCornerhead7

Match statistics

Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
Corners58
Shots1324
Shots on target76
Shots off target410
Total passes386498
Pass accuracy %75.181.7
Fouls committed1110
Total yellow cards22

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.