Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa

2026-10-17 17:30, St. James' Park. Half time 0–1. Johan Manzambi 35'

2026-10-17 17:30
Newcastle
0–1
Aston Villa
1.1
expected goals
-0.3 to Newcastle
1.4

Aston Villa created more, 1.4 to 1.1 expected goals, and won.

16Shots15
0.88Expected goals from open play1.39
0.24From set pieces0.05
1.12Excluding penalties1.44
1.12As the rating counts them1.44
1.1Points the chances deserved1.6

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Newcastle creates 1.30 and allows 1.31; Aston Villa creates 1.22 and allows 1.24.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Newcastle win 29 per cent, draw 27, Aston Villa win 45. Newcastle deserved 1.1 points and took 0; Aston Villa deserved 1.6 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Newcastle attack this way →← Aston Villa attack this wayHarvey Barnes 6': 0.06 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 8': 0.18 expected goalsJoe Willock 14': 0.07 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 15': 0.05 expected goalsMatty Cash 15': 0.07 expected goalsYoane Wissa 22': 0.03 expected goalsYoane Wissa 25': 0.05 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 28': 0.09 expected goalsSven Botman 32': 0.04 expected goalsYoane Wissa 32': 0.08 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 35': 0.20 expected goals, GOALEmiliano Buendía 37': 0.15 expected goalsSven Botman 48': 0.04 expected goalsJohan Manzambi 53': 0.03 expected goalsYoane Wissa 64': 0.04 expected goalsWilliam Osula 65': 0.07 expected goalsMatty Cash 67': 0.03 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 68': 0.06 expected goalsYoane Wissa 68': 0.17 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 72': 0.11 expected goalsRoss Barkley 73': 0.11 expected goalsLeon Goretzka 77': 0.03 expected goalsYoane Wissa 79': 0.09 expected goalsIbrahim Mbaye 82': 0.07 expected goalsHarvey Barnes 83': 0.11 expected goalsIbrahim Mbaye 84': 0.05 expected goalsYoane Wissa 84': 0.15 expected goalsIbrahim Mbaye 89': 0.17 expected goalsNico González 90': 0.03 expected goalsNicolas Jackson 93': 0.12 expected goalsNico González 94': 0.03 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.0001122334455667788MinuteNewcastle: 0Newcastle, 6': Harvey Barnes, 0.06 expected goalsNewcastle, 14': Joe Willock, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 22': Yoane Wissa, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle, 25': Yoane Wissa, 0.05 expected goalsNewcastle, 32': Sven Botman, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle, 32': Yoane Wissa, 0.08 expected goalsNewcastle, 48': Sven Botman, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle, 64': Yoane Wissa, 0.04 expected goalsNewcastle, 65': William Osula, 0.07 expected goalsNewcastle, 68': Harvey Barnes, 0.06 expected goalsNewcastle, 68': Yoane Wissa, 0.17 expected goalsNewcastle, 79': Yoane Wissa, 0.09 expected goalsNewcastle, 83': Harvey Barnes, 0.11 expected goalsNewcastle, 84': Yoane Wissa, 0.15 expected goalsNewcastle, 90': Nico González, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle, 94': Nico González, 0.03 expected goalsNewcastle: 1.12Aston Villa: 0Aston Villa, 8': Nicolas Jackson, 0.18 expected goalsAston Villa, 15': Johan Manzambi, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 15': Matty Cash, 0.07 expected goalsAston Villa, 28': Nicolas Jackson, 0.09 expected goalsAston Villa, 35': Johan Manzambi, 0.20 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 37': Emiliano Buendía, 0.15 expected goalsAston Villa, 53': Johan Manzambi, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 67': Matty Cash, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 72': Nicolas Jackson, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 73': Ross Barkley, 0.11 expected goalsAston Villa, 77': Leon Goretzka, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 82': Ibrahim Mbaye, 0.07 expected goalsAston Villa, 84': Ibrahim Mbaye, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 89': Ibrahim Mbaye, 0.17 expected goalsAston Villa, 93': Nicolas Jackson, 0.12 expected goalsAston Villa: 1.44NewcastleAston VillaGOAL Johan Manzambi 35'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsNewcastleAston Villa
In full1.121.44
Excluding penalties1.121.44
As the rating counts them1.121.44

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromNewcastleAston Villa
Open play0.881.39
of which counter-attacks0.150.56
Set pieces0.240.05
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.180.20
Inside the box0.891.23
Shots1615
Expected goals a shot0.070.10

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
6:50NewcastleHarvey Barnes Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot17
8:36Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Saved0.18FastBreakfoot14
14:43NewcastleJoe Willock Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot10
15:22Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.05RegularPlayfoot19
15:40Aston VillaMatty Cash Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot15
22:24NewcastleYoane Wissa Blocked0.03FromCornerhead10
25:55NewcastleYoane Wissa Blocked0.05SetPiecefoot19
28:42Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Blocked0.09RegularPlayfoot15
32:02NewcastleSven Botman Blocked0.04SetPiecehead11
32:06NewcastleYoane Wissa Missed0.08SetPiecefoot16
35:06Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Goal0.20RegularPlayhead6
37:59Aston VillaEmiliano Buendía Blocked0.15RegularPlayfoot12
48:44NewcastleSven Botman Saved0.04SetPiecefoot16
53:57Aston VillaJohan Manzambi Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot19
64:02NewcastleYoane Wissa Missed0.04RegularPlayhead11
65:49NewcastleWilliam Osula Missed0.07RegularPlayhead10
67:47Aston VillaMatty Cash Missed0.03FromCornerfoot25
68:22NewcastleHarvey Barnes Blocked0.06RegularPlayfoot19
68:44NewcastleYoane Wissa Blocked0.17RegularPlayfoot10
72:59Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Blocked0.11FastBreakfoot17
73:01Aston VillaRoss Barkley Saved0.11FastBreakfoot18
77:31Aston VillaLeon Goretzka Blocked0.03ThrowinSetPiecefoot21
79:02NewcastleYoane Wissa Missed0.09RegularPlayfoot14
82:46Aston VillaIbrahim Mbaye Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot13
83:22NewcastleHarvey Barnes Blocked0.11RegularPlayfoot12
84:00Aston VillaIbrahim Mbaye Blocked0.05FastBreakfoot24
84:18NewcastleYoane Wissa Missed0.15FastBreakfoot15
89:17Aston VillaIbrahim Mbaye Missed0.17RegularPlayfoot13
90:27NewcastleNico González Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot24
93:20Aston VillaNicolas Jackson Blocked0.12FastBreakfoot16
94:11NewcastleNico González Blocked0.03RegularPlayfoot26

Match statistics

NewcastleAston Villa
Corners45
Shots1615
Shots on target13
Shots off target64
Total passes401432
Pass accuracy %83.080.3
Fouls committed1411
Total yellow cards62

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.