Ipswich 1–1 Nottingham Forest

2026-10-23 20:00, Portman Road. Half time 1–1. Julio Enciso 40'; Neco Williams 12'

2026-10-23 20:00
Ipswich
1–1
Nottingham Forest
0.6
expected goals
-1.8 to Ipswich
2.5

Nottingham Forest created more, 2.5 to 0.6 expected goals, and drew.

7Shots17
0.59Expected goals from open play1.84
0.06From set pieces0.61
0.65Excluding penalties2.45
0.55As the rating counts them1.67
0.3Points the chances deserved2.6

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Ipswich creates 0.99 and allows 1.46; Nottingham Forest creates 1.17 and allows 1.27.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Ipswich win 5 per cent, draw 13, Nottingham Forest win 81. Ipswich deserved 0.3 points and took 1; Nottingham Forest deserved 2.6 and took 1.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Ipswich attack this way →← Nottingham Forest attack this wayJulio Enciso 4': 0.03 expected goalsJair Cunha 6': 0.12 expected goalsLiam Delap 7': 0.08 expected goalsAbdul Fatawu 8': 0.04 expected goalsNeco Williams 12': 0.64 expected goals, GOALJulio Enciso 18': 0.06 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 24': 0.09 expected goalsJaden Philogene 25': 0.20 expected goalsJulio Enciso 27': 0.06 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 30': 0.41 expected goalsDan Ndoye 32': 0.15 expected goalsJulio Enciso 40': 0.20 expected goals, GOALNeco Williams 59': 0.02 expected goalsMurillo 59': 0.07 expected goalsXaver Schlager 59': 0.03 expected goalsMurillo 62': 0.08 expected goalsDan Ndoye 63': 0.06 expected goalsDaniel Muñoz 63': 0.07 expected goalsLiam Delap 72': 0.22 expected goalsLiam Delap 73': 0.08 expected goalsJames McAtee 75': 0.01 expected goalsNikola Milenkovic 85': 0.12 expected goalsCallum Hudson-Odoi 89': 0.21 expected goalsJack Clarke 91': 0.08 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001122334455667788MinuteIpswich: 0Ipswich, 4': Julio Enciso, 0.03 expected goalsIpswich, 8': Abdul Fatawu, 0.04 expected goalsIpswich, 18': Julio Enciso, 0.06 expected goalsIpswich, 25': Jaden Philogene, 0.20 expected goalsIpswich, 27': Julio Enciso, 0.06 expected goalsIpswich, 40': Julio Enciso, 0.20 expected goals, GOALIpswich, 91': Jack Clarke, 0.08 expected goalsIpswich: 0.65Nottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 6': Jair Cunha, 0.12 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 7': Liam Delap, 0.08 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 12': Neco Williams, 0.64 expected goals, GOALNottingham Forest, 24': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.09 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 30': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.41 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 32': Dan Ndoye, 0.15 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 59': Neco Williams, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 59': Murillo, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 59': Xaver Schlager, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 62': Murillo, 0.08 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 63': Dan Ndoye, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 63': Daniel Muñoz, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 72': Liam Delap, 0.22 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 73': Liam Delap, 0.08 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 75': James McAtee, 0.01 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 85': Nikola Milenkovic, 0.12 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 89': Callum Hudson-Odoi, 0.21 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 2.45IpswichNottingham ForestGOAL Neco Williams 12'GOAL Julio Enciso 40'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsIpswichNottingham Forest
In full0.652.45
Excluding penalties0.652.45
As the rating counts them0.551.67

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromIpswichNottingham Forest
Open play0.591.84
of which counter-attacks0.000.58
Set pieces0.060.61
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.000.57
Inside the box0.312.36
Shots717
Expected goals a shot0.090.14

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
4:23IpswichJulio Enciso Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot24
6:00Nottingham ForestJair Cunha Saved0.12SetPiecefoot11
7:29Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot16
8:53IpswichAbdul Fatawu Missed0.04RegularPlayfoot22
12:11Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Goal0.64RegularPlayfoot7
18:33IpswichJulio Enciso Missed0.06DirectFreekickfoot25
24:21Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.09FastBreakfoot20
25:19IpswichJaden Philogene Saved0.20RegularPlayfoot10
27:21IpswichJulio Enciso Saved0.06RegularPlayfoot21
30:44Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Saved0.41FastBreakfoot7
32:13Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.15FromCornerhead6
40:25IpswichJulio Enciso Goal0.20RegularPlayfoot17
59:30Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Blocked0.02FromCornerfoot19
59:32Nottingham ForestMurillo Saved0.07FromCornerfoot14
59:35Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Missed0.03FromCornerfoot20
62:01Nottingham ForestMurillo Missed0.08FromCornerhead7
63:01Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot13
63:05Nottingham ForestDaniel Muñoz Missed0.07RegularPlayfoot15
72:58Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.22RegularPlayhead5
73:41Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.08FastBreakfoot21
75:56Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Saved0.01ThrowinSetPiecefoot30
85:34Nottingham ForestNikola Milenkovic Missed0.12SetPiecehead8
89:29Nottingham ForestCallum Hudson-Odoi Missed0.21RegularPlayfoot15
91:23IpswichJack Clarke Missed0.08RegularPlayfoot16

Match statistics

IpswichNottingham Forest
Corners05
Shots717
Shots on target35
Shots off target411
Total passes472468
Pass accuracy %79.279.9
Fouls committed911
Total yellow cards11

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.