Every fixture still to play (320 of them) is given the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win from the two teams' ratings now. The rest of the season is then played out 10,000 times at random with those chances and the final table counted each time. Projected points are the average; the range is the 10th to the 90th of the plays, so eight plays in ten finish inside it. The range covers the randomness of the matches still to play and the ratings' own error: in each of 100 draws of the ratings, every team's two ratings are moved by their own random factors with a spread of 0.24, the amount at which the range held eight final points in ten across the seasons 2019/20 to 2022/23 (how good are the forecasts). The range narrows as the season goes on.
| Team | Pts now | Projected | Range | Likely pos | Pos range | Title | Top 4 | Europe | Relegated | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 18 | 81.7 | 64–99 | 1st | 1st–6th | 46% | 85% | 95% | 0% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 15 | 78.1 | 63–93 | 1st | 1st–6th | 30% | 83% | 94% | 0% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 9 | 63.9 | 47–80 | 3rd | 2nd–13th | 5% | 42% | 67% | 1% |
| 4 | Chelsea | 10 | 61.3 | 41–79 | 4th | 2nd–15th | 5% | 35% | 63% | 6% |
| 5 | Brighton | 13 | 60.4 | 44–77 | 4th | 2nd–14th | 3% | 31% | 56% | 3% |
| 6 | Man Utd | 6 | 59.4 | 43–77 | 3rd | 2nd–14th | 3% | 29% | 53% | 4% |
| 7 | Brentford | 10 | 56.3 | 39–74 | 5th | 3rd–16th | 3% | 21% | 45% | 6% |
| 8 | Leeds | 9 | 53.1 | 38–68 | 9th | 4th–16th | 0% | 12% | 33% | 7% |
| 9 | Newcastle | 8 | 50.4 | 30–68 | 10th | 4th–19th | 1% | 12% | 30% | 15% |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 5 | 50.0 | 32–67 | 10th | 5th–18th | 1% | 10% | 27% | 13% |
| 11 | Everton | 10 | 49.3 | 34–66 | 15th | 5th–18th | 1% | 8% | 23% | 11% |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 3 | 49.2 | 31–66 | 7th | 5th–18th | 0% | 8% | 27% | 14% |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 48.2 | 30–65 | 13th | 5th–18th | 0% | 8% | 23% | 15% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 47.7 | 32–64 | 15th | 5th–18th | 1% | 7% | 19% | 15% |
| 15 | Fulham | 2 | 43.6 | 29–59 | 16th | 7th–19th | 0% | 3% | 11% | 21% |
| 16 | Tottenham | 3 | 43.1 | 28–58 | 17th | 8th–19th | 0% | 2% | 9% | 22% |
| 17 | Coventry | 6 | 42.3 | 26–59 | 20th | 7th–20th | 0% | 2% | 11% | 28% |
| 18 | Ipswich | 9 | 42.3 | 26–58 | 20th | 8th–20th | 0% | 2% | 9% | 28% |
| 19 | Sunderland | 4 | 39.3 | 25–53 | 17th | 9th–20th | 0% | 1% | 5% | 32% |
| 20 | Hull | 9 | 33.1 | 20–47 | 20th | 13th–20th | 0% | 0% | 1% | 57% |
Europe is the top seven, the league's usual number of places in the three European competitions before cup winners move them. Ties in a play are broken by goal difference and goals scored.
One row per team, one cell per finishing position from first at the left to last at the right; the darker the cell, the likelier the position. Hover or tap for the figure.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 46 | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Arsenal | 30 | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Everton | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Crystal Palace | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Coventry | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ipswich | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Sunderland | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Hull | 25 |
The projection is fitted on the seasons 2018/19 to 2025/26 and this season's matches so far: how often sides of such ratings won, drew and lost, with this league's scoring level and home advantage.