Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest

2026-09-12 15:00, Villa Park. Half time 0–0. Alysson 73'; Liam Delap 45', Igor Jesus 87'

2026-09-12 15:00
Aston Villa
1–2
Nottingham Forest
1.1
expected goals
-1.2 to Aston Villa
2.3

Nottingham Forest created more, 2.3 to 1.1 expected goals, and won.

7Shots22
1.02Expected goals from open play2.12
0.09From set pieces0.22
1.11Excluding penalties2.34
0.68As the rating counts them1.94
0.6Points the chances deserved2.2

Rating brought into the match, expected goals a match as the rating counts them: Aston Villa creates 1.20 and allows 1.22; Nottingham Forest creates 1.13 and allows 1.23.

The result the chances deserved

From the two sides' shots taken together: Aston Villa win 13 per cent, draw 20, Nottingham Forest win 67. Aston Villa deserved 0.6 points and took 0; Nottingham Forest deserved 2.2 and took 3.

Each shot scores with its own probability, independently; two shots in one passage of play both count although only one could have scored, so a match with rebounds is slightly overstated.

Where the chances were

Aston Villa attack this way →← Nottingham Forest attack this wayVictor Lindelöf 6': 0.68 expected goalsIan Maatsen 6': 0.13 expected goalsIan Maatsen 7': 0.05 expected goalsJames McAtee 11': 0.01 expected goalsOusmane Diomande 15': 0.05 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 22': 0.07 expected goalsRoss Barkley 31': 0.03 expected goalsDan Ndoye 34': 0.30 expected goalsLiam Delap 45': 0.04 expected goals, GOALNeco Williams 46': 0.06 expected goalsDan Ndoye 49': 0.03 expected goalsLiam Delap 54': 0.26 expected goalsLiam Delap 57': 0.23 expected goalsDan Ndoye 58': 0.20 expected goalsDan Ndoye 60': 0.16 expected goalsLiam Delap 60': 0.02 expected goalsDan Ndoye 68': 0.14 expected goalsIbrahim Mbaye 72': 0.02 expected goalsAlysson 73': 0.07 expected goals, GOALJames McAtee 76': 0.03 expected goalsLiam Delap 78': 0.05 expected goalsLiam Delap 79': 0.05 expected goalsDaniel Muñoz 84': 0.13 expected goalsXaver Schlager 85': 0.03 expected goalsNeco Williams 85': 0.06 expected goalsIgor Jesus 87': 0.33 expected goals, GOALIbrahim Sangaré 89': 0.02 expected goalsMorgan Gibbs-White 95': 0.07 expected goalsTyrone Mings 96': 0.13 expected goals

One mark per shot, larger for a better chance; filled marks are goals. Hover a mark for the player and the chance.

How the match built up

0.000.501.001.502.0001224364860728496MinuteAston Villa: 0Aston Villa, 6': Victor Lindelöf, 0.68 expected goalsAston Villa, 6': Ian Maatsen, 0.13 expected goalsAston Villa, 7': Ian Maatsen, 0.05 expected goalsAston Villa, 31': Ross Barkley, 0.03 expected goalsAston Villa, 72': Ibrahim Mbaye, 0.02 expected goalsAston Villa, 73': Alysson, 0.07 expected goals, GOALAston Villa, 96': Tyrone Mings, 0.13 expected goalsAston Villa: 1.11Nottingham Forest: 0Nottingham Forest, 11': James McAtee, 0.01 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 15': Ousmane Diomande, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 22': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 34': Dan Ndoye, 0.30 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 45': Liam Delap, 0.04 expected goals, GOALNottingham Forest, 46': Neco Williams, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 49': Dan Ndoye, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 54': Liam Delap, 0.26 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 57': Liam Delap, 0.23 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 58': Dan Ndoye, 0.20 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 60': Dan Ndoye, 0.16 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 60': Liam Delap, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 68': Dan Ndoye, 0.14 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 76': James McAtee, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 78': Liam Delap, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 79': Liam Delap, 0.05 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 84': Daniel Muñoz, 0.13 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 85': Xaver Schlager, 0.03 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 85': Neco Williams, 0.06 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 87': Igor Jesus, 0.33 expected goals, GOALNottingham Forest, 89': Ibrahim Sangaré, 0.02 expected goalsNottingham Forest, 95': Morgan Gibbs-White, 0.07 expected goalsNottingham Forest: 2.34Aston VillaNottingham ForestGOAL Liam Delap 45'GOAL Alysson 73'GOAL Igor Jesus 87'

Expected goals added up through the match; the rings are goals.

Expected goals, three ways

Expected goalsAston VillaNottingham Forest
In full1.112.34
Excluding penalties1.112.34
As the rating counts them0.681.94

In full, every chance counts at its value. What the numbers mean says how the rating counts a chance.

Where each side's chances came from

Expected goals fromAston VillaNottingham Forest
Open play1.022.12
of which counter-attacks0.000.35
Set pieces0.090.22
Penalties0.000.00
Headers0.200.38
Inside the box1.081.83
Shots722
Expected goals a shot0.160.11

Every shot

MinSidePlayerResultxGPlayBodyMetres
6:31Aston VillaVictor Lindelöf Saved0.68RegularPlayfoot3
6:34Aston VillaIan Maatsen Blocked0.13RegularPlayfoot15
7:22Aston VillaIan Maatsen Saved0.05RegularPlayfoot18
11:54Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Saved0.01SetPiecefoot29
15:25Nottingham ForestOusmane Diomande Missed0.05SetPiecefoot11
22:09Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Saved0.07RegularPlayfoot15
31:48Aston VillaRoss Barkley Saved0.03RegularPlayfoot25
34:21Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Saved0.30RegularPlayfoot16
45:45Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Goal0.04RegularPlayfoot26
46:02Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Missed0.06ThrowinSetPiecefoot16
49:58Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.03RegularPlayfoot25
54:00Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.26RegularPlayfoot18
57:23Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.23RegularPlayfoot8
58:11Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Missed0.20RegularPlayhead7
60:10Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Blocked0.16FastBreakfoot15
60:33Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.02RegularPlayhead13
68:06Nottingham ForestDan Ndoye Blocked0.14FastBreakfoot15
72:40Aston VillaIbrahim Mbaye Saved0.02SetPiecefoot24
73:07Aston VillaAlysson Goal0.07FromCornerhead9
76:38Nottingham ForestJames McAtee Missed0.03SetPiecefoot24
78:05Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Blocked0.05RegularPlayother13
79:21Nottingham ForestLiam Delap Missed0.05FastBreakfoot25
84:42Nottingham ForestDaniel Muñoz Saved0.13RegularPlayhead7
85:25Nottingham ForestXaver Schlager Saved0.03RegularPlayhead12
85:28Nottingham ForestNeco Williams Missed0.06RegularPlayfoot13
87:08Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus Goal0.33RegularPlayfoot8
89:49Nottingham ForestIbrahim Sangaré Missed0.02RegularPlayfoot37
95:52Nottingham ForestMorgan Gibbs-White Missed0.07DirectFreekickfoot23
96:35Aston VillaTyrone Mings Missed0.13RegularPlayhead8

Match statistics

Aston VillaNottingham Forest
Corners61
Shots722
Shots on target57
Shots off target112
Total passes421360
Pass accuracy %82.285.8
Fouls committed1116
Total yellow cards25

Counts of the events in the match feed whose definitions the project has checked against a second source.